The full card, graded
The breakdown
Anthony Hernandez is 9-3 through 12 UFC middleweight bouts and had won four straight, including submissions of Roman Kopylov and Roman Dolidze, before Sean Strickland stopped him in February 2026. Gregory Rodrigues is 10-3 in 13 and arrives on three straight wins, two of them first-round knockouts, over Jack Hermansson and Brunno Ferreira. The card is billed on this fight, and the model has Hernandez HIGH.
HIGH on the fight the card is named for says the model is not treating Rodrigues's knockout run as the deciding factor. Hernandez's path is the grappling that finished Kopylov and Dolidze and out-worked Brendan Allen over three rounds. Rodrigues's path is short and obvious, landing clean early, the way he did against Hermansson and Ferreira. Most likely method is decision, which is the tell: the model expects Hernandez to take the fight to places where the knockout threat stops mattering.
- HIGH tier, the strongest of the model's four HIGH picks
- Hernandez's grappling against Rodrigues's first-round power
- Rodrigues on a three-fight streak with two first-round KOs
- Hernandez coming off a knockout loss to Sean Strickland
- Middleweight, five rounds, decision the likely method
The breakdown
Serghei Spivac is 9-6 in 15 UFC heavyweight fights and has lost three of his last five, to Ciryl Gane, Jailton Almeida and Waldo Cortes Acosta, with a decision over Ante Delija in February 2026 the most recent entry. Vitor Petrino is 7-2 in nine and has won three straight since moving up from light heavyweight, stopping Austen Lane and Thomas Petersen along the way. The model has Petrino, and the read is the direction each career is pointing.
The model is siding with the shorter, cleaner recent run over the longer record. Petrino's path is what heavyweight has given him, a first-round submission of Lane and a third-round stoppage of Petersen. Spivac's path is his grappling, which submitted Marcin Tybura inside a round and is the one area where his experience clearly outweighs Petrino's. Most likely method is knockout or TKO, which is where Spivac has been most vulnerable, stopped twice in his last five.
- Heavyweight, three rounds
- Petrino on a three-fight win streak at heavyweight
- Spivac stopped twice in his last five
- Spivac's submission game the clearest route to an upset
- Knockout or TKO the likely method
The breakdown
Reinier de Ridder is 4-2 in six UFC middleweight bouts, with wins over Kevin Holland, Bo Nickal and Robert Whittaker and back-to-back losses to Brendan Allen and Caio Borralho. Roman Dolidze is 9-5 in 14 and has also lost his last two, to Anthony Hernandez by submission and Christian Leroy Duncan by decision. Two middleweights on losing runs, and the model still makes this its strongest read of the card, with de Ridder LOCK.
LOCK on a fighter coming off two losses only makes sense if the model is weighing the wins more heavily than the streak, and de Ridder's wins are over Holland, Nickal and Whittaker. His path is the grappling that submitted Holland in a round and the volume that edged Whittaker on a split decision over five rounds. Dolidze's path is the power that knocked Holland out in a round of his own, and he has carried a five-round pace before against Marvin Vettori. Most likely method is decision, and the shared name on both sheets is Holland, finished by each of them inside a round.
- LOCK tier, the model's strongest read on the card
- Both men enter on two-fight losing runs
- De Ridder's wins over Holland, Nickal and Whittaker the model's read
- Dolidze's knockout power the live path to an upset
- Middleweight, three rounds, decision the likely method
The breakdown
Marquel Mederos is unbeaten in the UFC at 3-0-1, and all three wins came by decision, over Landon Quinones, Austin Hubbard and Mark Choinski. Mason Jones is 4-2 in seven UFC lightweight fights and has won three straight, over Jeremy Stephens, Bolaji Oki and Axel Sola. The model has Jones, on the strength of the longer record and the more recent run.
The read is depth of record. Jones has faced a wider spread of opposition and his last four appearances produced three wins, including a second-round knockout of Oki. Mederos's path is the one that has worked every time so far, controlling rounds and banking a decision, and none of his UFC fights has ended early. Most likely method is decision, which suits both men, so the question is who decides where the rounds get spent.
- Lightweight, three rounds, decision the likely method
- Jones on a three-fight UFC win streak
- Mederos 3-0-1 in the UFC with every bout going the distance
- Jones's second-round KO of Bolaji Oki his only recent finish
- Mederos's path is controlling the rounds he has always controlled
The breakdown
Carli Judice is 3-1 in four UFC flyweight bouts and has won three straight since a split-decision loss to Gabriella Fernandes, knocking out Yuneisy Duben in a round and Nicolle Caliari in the third before a decision over Juliana Miller. Jeisla Chaves has one UFC fight, a split-decision win over Duben in June 2026. The model has Judice HIGH.
The common opponent does most of the work here. Judice knocked Duben out in the first round; Chaves needed 15 minutes and two of the three judges to beat the same fighter. Judice's path is her finishing rate, two stoppages in three wins, while Chaves's path is the durability that carried her through a hard three rounds on debut. Most likely method is decision, so the read is that Judice wins the exchanges over a full fight without needing to end it early.
- HIGH tier
- Shared opponent: Judice KO'd Yuneisy Duben, Chaves beat her on a split decision
- Judice on a three-fight UFC win streak
- Chaves 1-0, her only UFC appearance going the distance
- Women's flyweight, three rounds, decision the likely method
The breakdown
Jamall Emmers is 5-4 in nine UFC featherweight bouts and has won two straight, a first-round knockout of Gabriel Miranda and a decision over Hyder Amil in November 2025. He has also been knocked out in the first round himself, by Nate Landwehr in 2024. Lerryan Douglas has one UFC fight, a first-round KO/TKO of Julian Erosa in March 2026. The model has Douglas HIGH.
HIGH on a fighter with one UFC appearance means the model rates Douglas above an opponent with nine bouts behind him. Douglas's path is the one that beat Erosa, landing something heavy before the fight settles into a rhythm. Emmers's path is the opposite, taking the early sting out of it and turning the fight into rounds, which is how he beat Amil. Most likely method is decision, and that is the tell: the model expects Douglas to be ahead even if the early knockout never comes.
- HIGH tier on a fighter with a single UFC bout
- Douglas's first-round KO of Julian Erosa the model's read
- Emmers on a two-fight win streak but knocked out inside a round in 2024
- Emmers's path is surviving the opening five minutes
- Featherweight, three rounds, decision the likely method
The breakdown
Kennedy Nzechukwu is 8-6-1 through 15 UFC bouts and has spent the past two years at heavyweight after starting his run at light heavyweight. Shamil Gaziev is 3-3 in six UFC fights and has been stopped in each of his last two, by Waldo Cortes Acosta and Brando Pericic. Both men have first-round knockouts on their recent sheets and both have been finished.
This is close to even and the model is barely separating them. Nzechukwu's path is the pressure that produced first-round finishes of Chris Barnett and Lukasz Brzeski, and Gaziev has now been stopped inside two rounds twice running. Gaziev's path is his own power, which took out Thomas Petersen in a round.
- Both men carry one-shot finishing power
- Gaziev stopped in each of his last two
- Nzechukwu's two first-round heavyweight KOs the model's positive read
- Close read, near coin-flip
The breakdown
Chris Padilla is unbeaten in the UFC at 4-0-1, having finished James Llontop, Rongzhu and Ismael Bonfim and last appeared in a majority draw with Marquel Mederos in April 2026, who also fights on this card. Nasrat Haqparast is 10-5 in 15 UFC lightweight bouts, with four straight wins before Quillan Salkilld knocked him out in the first round in October 2025. The model splits them by almost nothing and takes Padilla.
This is as close as the model gets on the card's lightweight bouts. Padilla's path is the finishing pressure that ended three of his UFC fights early, and he has yet to lose one. Haqparast's path is the experience gap, 15 UFC fights against five, plus two recent split-decision wins that show he knows how to take close rounds. Most likely method is decision, and the knockout loss to Salkilld is the entry that keeps this from being a straightforward experience call.
- Lightweight, three rounds, decision the likely method
- Padilla unbeaten in the UFC with three finishes
- Haqparast's 15 UFC fights against Padilla's five
- Haqparast's first-round KO loss to Quillan Salkilld the open question
- Close read, near coin-flip
The breakdown
Marcio Barbosa has one UFC fight, a first-round KO/TKO of Dennis Buzukja in April 2026 at featherweight. Ryan Kuse makes his UFC debut. The model has Barbosa HIGH, and that call rests largely on the one appearance it can see.
HIGH with this little history is unusual and it turns on how cleanly Barbosa's debut went. His path is the same early pressure that ended Buzukja before the fight had shape. Kuse's path is a first UFC fight, and that is a risk running in both directions. Most likely method is knockout or TKO, so the opening round is where this one gets settled.
- HIGH tier, one of the higher reads on the card
- Barbosa 1-0 in the UFC by first-round KO/TKO
- Kuse makes his UFC debut
- Knockout or TKO the likely method
- Three rounds, but the first is the one that matters
The breakdown
Gauge Young is 2-1 in three UFC lightweight bouts, with a decision loss to Evan Elder and wins over Maheshate and Thiago Moises, the last of those on a split decision in April 2026. Stan Dorsainvil makes his UFC debut. The model takes Young in the closest read on the card.
With one side of the matchup a debut, the model has little to separate them, and its read was close to even at 52.0%. Young's path is the one he has used twice, working three rounds and taking the scorecards, which is how both of his wins arrived. Dorsainvil's path is a first UFC fight. Most likely method is decision.
- Closest read on the card
- Dorsainvil makes his UFC debut
- Young 2-1 with both wins by decision
- Young's split decision over Thiago Moises his most recent result
- Lightweight, three rounds, decision the likely method
The breakdown
Jackson McVey is 1-2 in three UFC middleweight bouts, with both losses by submission and his win a first-round submission of Sedriques Dumas in April 2026. Wes Schultz is 1-1, knocked out in the first round by Damian Pinas in February 2026 and back two months later with a third-round submission of Ben Johnston. Two middleweights with thin UFC records and a grappling finish apiece.
This is coin-flip territory and the model is separating them by the thinnest margin. McVey's path is the front-foot pressure that got him the Dumas finish before Dumas could settle. Schultz's path is durability past the opening round, because his one bad night came inside five minutes and his one good one needed 15. Most likely method is knockout or TKO, which fits a matchup where both men have already been finished inside the distance in the UFC.
- Middleweight, three rounds
- Both fighters finished inside the distance in a UFC loss
- McVey's first-round submission of Sedriques Dumas the model's positive read
- Schultz's first-round KO loss the clearest question mark
- Close read, near coin-flip
The breakdown
Elise Reed is the strawweight with nine UFC fights and a 4-5 record, and she has lost three of her last five, most recently a second-round knockout by Denise Gomes in May 2025. Shanelle Dyer has one UFC appearance, a second-round KO/TKO of Ravena Oliveira in March 2026. The model has Dyer LOCK; the read is trajectory against a long and uneven record.
LOCK on a fighter with a single UFC bout is rare, and it means the model sees a structural gap. Dyer's path is the one she has already walked, sustained pressure that turned into a stoppage in the second round. Reed's path is her decision-round experience, and both of her recent wins came over three rounds, against Jinh Yu Frey and Jessica Penne. Most likely method is decision, which is the tell: the model expects Dyer to win rounds rather than blow through her.
- LOCK tier, the second-highest read on the card
- Dyer 1-0 in the UFC with a second-round stoppage
- Reed 4-5 with three losses in her last five
- Reed's path is dragging it into deep decision water
- Women's strawweight, three rounds, decision the likely method