Anthony Hernandez is 9-3 through 12 UFC middleweight bouts and had won four straight, including submissions of Roman Kopylov and Roman Dolidze, before Sean Strickland stopped him in February 2026. Gregory Rodrigues is 10-3 in 13 and arrives on three straight wins, two of them first-round knockouts, over Jack Hermansson and Brunno Ferreira. The card is billed on this fight, and the model has Hernandez HIGH.
The read
HIGH on the fight the card is named for says the model is not treating Rodrigues's knockout run as the deciding factor. Hernandez's path is the grappling that finished Kopylov and Dolidze and out-worked Brendan Allen over three rounds. Rodrigues's path is short and obvious, landing clean early, the way he did against Hermansson and Ferreira. Most likely method is decision, which is the tell: the model expects Hernandez to take the fight to places where the knockout threat stops mattering.
What decides it
- HIGH tier, the strongest of the model's four HIGH picks
- Hernandez's grappling against Rodrigues's first-round power
- Rodrigues on a three-fight streak with two first-round KOs
- Hernandez coming off a knockout loss to Sean Strickland
- Middleweight, five rounds, decision the likely method