This Saturday Buckley vs Malott · Rogers Place Edmonton AB Canada See this week's picks →

Data-driven UFC predictions — with a public record.

This Saturday · 17 Oct 2026
Buckley vs Malott
Rogers Place Edmonton AB Canada · 13 fights
69.36%
every fight we called · 2026 (292-129, n=421)
77.78%
on strong consensus (63-18, n=81)
69.36% is every fight we called in 2026 — 292-129 across 421 picks, all graded in public, toss-ups included. We don't cherry-pick. Not every call is equal: when our models strongly agree we run at 77.78% (63-18); whenever they agree at all, 74.7% (124-42). How our tiers work → · See the receipts →

This week's picks

Picks as of 11 Oct 14:30 UTC, when this page was built · live Polymarket prices as of 11 Oct 14:01 UTC (10 of 13 bouts priced on Polymarket) · 10 of the 13 picks carry a live Polymarket price. This is a static page: nothing on it updates until it is rebuilt.
MAIN CARD
★ Main Event · Welterweight +120 / -154
Joaquin Buckley
VS
Mike Malott
45%55%
TOSS-UPWe predict Mike Malott — 55% confidentlive · Polymarket
Tap for the read
Most likely
KO/TKO · 52%
Goes distance
34%
Median time
15:00
Live · Polymarket 11 Oct 14:01 UTC
Mike Malott 56%
The model backs Mike Malott at 55%, -2.2pp vs the sportsbook line (57%). Most likely by KO/TKO (52%).
Joaquin Buckley vs Mike Malott prediction
Women's Flyweight -250 / +210
Erin Blanchfield
VS
Jasmine Jasudavicius
81%19%
HIGHWe predict Erin Blanchfield — 81% confidentlive · Polymarket
Tap for the read
Most likely
DEC · 58%
Goes distance
58%
Median time
12:53
Live · Polymarket 11 Oct 14:01 UTC
Erin Blanchfield 72%
The model backs Erin Blanchfield at 81%, +11.9pp vs the sportsbook line (69%). Most likely by decision (58%).
Erin Blanchfield vs Jasmine Jasudavicius prediction
Lightweight -275 / +240
CGCristian Perez Gonzalez
VS
Kyle Nelson
71%29%
We predict Cristian Perez Gonzalez — 71% confidentlive · Polymarket
Tap for the read
Most likely
KO/TKO · 45%
Goes distance
31%
Median time
7:55
Live · Polymarket 11 Oct 14:01 UTC
Cristian Perez Gonzalez 72%
The model backs Cristian Perez Gonzalez at 71%, +0.0pp vs the sportsbook line (71%). Most likely by KO/TKO (45%).
Cristian Perez Gonzalez vs Kyle Nelson prediction
Middleweight -225 / +185
Kyle Daukaus
VS
Marc-Andre Barriault
76%24%
HIGHWe predict Kyle Daukaus — 76% confidentlive · Polymarket
Tap for the read
Most likely
KO/TKO · 44%
Goes distance
28%
Median time
9:16
Live · Polymarket 11 Oct 14:01 UTC
Kyle Daukaus 68%
The model backs Kyle Daukaus at 76%, +9.4pp vs the sportsbook line (66%). Most likely by KO/TKO (44%).
Kyle Daukaus vs Marc-Andre Barriault prediction
Bantamweight -160 / +135
Louis Jourdain
VS
Timmy Cuamba
59%41%
We predict Louis Jourdain — 59% confidentlive · Polymarket
Tap for the read
Most likely
DEC · 41%
Goes distance
41%
Median time
9:25
Live · Polymarket 11 Oct 14:01 UTC
Louis Jourdain 64%
The model backs Louis Jourdain at 59%, +0.0pp vs the sportsbook line (59%). Most likely by decision (41%).
Louis Jourdain vs Timmy Cuamba prediction
Lightweight -250 / +210
Mandel Nallo
VS
Nate Landwehr
75%25%
HIGHWe predict Mandel Nallo — 75% confidentlive · Polymarket
Tap for the read
Most likely
KO/TKO · 57%
Goes distance
22%
Median time
7:35
Live · Polymarket 11 Oct 14:01 UTC
Mandel Nallo 71%
The model backs Mandel Nallo at 75%, +6.2pp vs the sportsbook line (69%). Most likely by KO/TKO (57%).
Mandel Nallo vs Nate Landwehr prediction
PRELIMS
Heavyweight -250 / +210
Jhonata Diniz
VS
Tanner Boser
76%24%
HIGHWe predict Jhonata Diniz — 76% confidentlive · Polymarket
Tap for the read
Most likely
KO/TKO · 49%
Goes distance
41%
Median time
10:34
Live · Polymarket 11 Oct 14:01 UTC
Jhonata Diniz 68%
The model backs Jhonata Diniz at 76%, +7.1pp vs the sportsbook line (69%). Most likely by KO/TKO (49%).
Jhonata Diniz vs Tanner Boser prediction
Bantamweight -130 / +110
Chad Anheliger
VS
Steven Koslow
43%57%
LOWWe predict Steven Koslow — 57% confidentlive · Polymarket
Tap for the read
Most likely
DEC · 52%
Goes distance
52%
Median time
11:54
Live · Polymarket 11 Oct 14:01 UTC
Steven Koslow 47%
The model backs Steven Koslow at 57%, +11.2pp vs the sportsbook line (46%). Most likely by decision (52%).
Chad Anheliger vs Steven Koslow prediction
Women's Bantamweight +205 / -250
Chelsea Chandler
VS
Melissa Croden
23%77%
HIGHWe predict Melissa Croden — 77% confidentlive · Polymarket
Tap for the read
Most likely
DEC · 56%
Goes distance
56%
Median time
11:58
Live · Polymarket 11 Oct 14:01 UTC
Melissa Croden 70%
The model backs Melissa Croden at 77%, +8.1pp vs the sportsbook line (69%). Most likely by decision (56%).
Chelsea Chandler vs Melissa Croden prediction
Bantamweight -150 / +130
Cody Chovancek
VS
SuYoung You
58%42%
We predict Cody Chovancek — 58% confidentlive · Polymarket
Tap for the read
Most likely
DEC · 46%
Goes distance
46%
Median time
9:35
Live · Polymarket 11 Oct 14:01 UTC
Cody Chovancek 58%
The model backs Cody Chovancek at 58%, +0.0pp vs the sportsbook line (58%). Most likely by decision (46%).
Cody Chovancek vs SuYoung You prediction
Middleweight +400 / -549
Julien Leblanc
VS
Nick Galanti
19%81%
We predict Nick Galanti — 81% confident
Tap for the read
Most likely
KO/TKO · 47%
Goes distance
26%
Median time
6:13
The model backs Nick Galanti at 81%, +0.0pp vs the sportsbook line (81%). Most likely by KO/TKO (47%).
Julien Leblanc vs Nick Galanti prediction
Heavyweight -125 / +105
JMJavad Mahjoub
VS
JFJoel Faglier
53%47%
We predict Javad Mahjoub — 53% confident
Tap for the read
Most likely
KO/TKO · 46%
Goes distance
32%
Median time
5:07
The model backs Javad Mahjoub at 53%, +0.0pp vs the sportsbook line (53%). Most likely by KO/TKO (46%).
Javad Mahjoub vs Joel Faglier prediction
Women's Flyweight -240 / +200
Katlyn Cerminara
VS
Mackenzie Stiller
68%32%
We predict Katlyn Cerminara — 68% confident
Tap for the read
Most likely
DEC · 51%
Goes distance
51%
Median time
10:20
The model backs Katlyn Cerminara at 68%, +0.0pp vs the sportsbook line (68%). Most likely by decision (51%).
Katlyn Cerminara vs Mackenzie Stiller prediction

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