Chris Padilla is unbeaten in the UFC at 4-0-1, having finished James Llontop, Rongzhu and Ismael Bonfim and last appeared in a majority draw with Marquel Mederos in April 2026, who also fights on this card. Nasrat Haqparast is 10-5 in 15 UFC lightweight bouts, with four straight wins before Quillan Salkilld knocked him out in the first round in October 2025. The model splits them by almost nothing and takes Padilla.
The read
This is as close as the model gets on the card's lightweight bouts. Padilla's path is the finishing pressure that ended three of his UFC fights early, and he has yet to lose one. Haqparast's path is the experience gap, 15 UFC fights against five, plus two recent split-decision wins that show he knows how to take close rounds. Most likely method is decision, and the knockout loss to Salkilld is the entry that keeps this from being a straightforward experience call.
What decides it
- Lightweight, three rounds, decision the likely method
- Padilla unbeaten in the UFC with three finishes
- Haqparast's 15 UFC fights against Padilla's five
- Haqparast's first-round KO loss to Quillan Salkilld the open question
- Close read, near coin-flip