Gauge Young is 2-1 in three UFC lightweight bouts, with a decision loss to Evan Elder and wins over Maheshate and Thiago Moises, the last of those on a split decision in April 2026. Stan Dorsainvil makes his UFC debut. The model takes Young in the closest read on the card.
The read
With one side of the matchup a debut, the model has little to separate them, and its read was close to even at 52.0%. Young's path is the one he has used twice, working three rounds and taking the scorecards, which is how both of his wins arrived. Dorsainvil's path is a first UFC fight. Most likely method is decision.
What decides it
- Closest read on the card
- Dorsainvil makes his UFC debut
- Young 2-1 with both wins by decision
- Young's split decision over Thiago Moises his most recent result
- Lightweight, three rounds, decision the likely method