Reinier de Ridder is 4-2 in six UFC middleweight bouts, with wins over Kevin Holland, Bo Nickal and Robert Whittaker and back-to-back losses to Brendan Allen and Caio Borralho. Roman Dolidze is 9-5 in 14 and has also lost his last two, to Anthony Hernandez by submission and Christian Leroy Duncan by decision. Two middleweights on losing runs, and the model still makes this its strongest read of the card, with de Ridder LOCK.
The read
LOCK on a fighter coming off two losses only makes sense if the model is weighing the wins more heavily than the streak, and de Ridder's wins are over Holland, Nickal and Whittaker. His path is the grappling that submitted Holland in a round and the volume that edged Whittaker on a split decision over five rounds. Dolidze's path is the power that knocked Holland out in a round of his own, and he has carried a five-round pace before against Marvin Vettori. Most likely method is decision, and the shared name on both sheets is Holland, finished by each of them inside a round.
What decides it
- LOCK tier, the model's strongest read on the card
- Both men enter on two-fight losing runs
- De Ridder's wins over Holland, Nickal and Whittaker the model's read
- Dolidze's knockout power the live path to an upset
- Middleweight, three rounds, decision the likely method