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FightIQ · The Lab

The Lab

What UFC history says about the things that decide fights. Each question is answered in one sentence from 8,760 UFC fights with a winner, with the full working one click away. The fight pages’ “By the numbers” cards link here.

Official UFC record, 11 March 1994 to 10 October 2026

Every finding on one line

How often the fighter named on each row won, against a coin flip. Filled dots sit clear of 50% once the sample size is allowed for; hollow ones could be chance. Each row opens its page.

Every Lab finding against a coin flipOne row per question: how often the named fighter won, with a 95% range, against a dashed 50% line. The cards below repeat each answer in words.30%40%50%60%70%80%50%, a coin flipYounger, 10 years or more: 69.5% of 508 fights (95% range 65.4 to 73.3%)Younger, 10 years or more508 fights69.5%Title experience vs a first-timer: 65.1% of 209 fights (95% range 58.4 to 71.2%)Title experience vs a first-timer209 fights65.1%Longer win run, 6 or more: 64.2% of 321 fights (95% range 58.8 to 69.2%)Longer win run, 6 or more321 fights64.2%Won the previous meeting: 59.8% of 194 fights (95% range 52.8 to 66.4%)Won the previous meeting194 fights59.8%Longer reach, 7 inches or more: 59.5% of 375 fights (95% range 54.4 to 64.3%)Longer reach, 7 inches or more375 fights59.5%Southpaw vs orthodox: 53.4% of 2,450 fights (95% range 51.4 to 55.4%)Southpaw vs orthodox2,450 fights53.4%Taller, 5 inches or more: 53.3% of 657 fights (95% range 49.4 to 57.1%)Taller, 5 inches or more657 fights53.3%Debutant vs a UFC veteran: 41.8% of 1,661 fights (95% range 39.5 to 44.2%)Debutant vs a UFC veteran1,661 fights41.8%Back from a year or more out: 40.3% of 1,142 fights (95% range 37.5 to 43.2%)Back from a year or more out1,142 fights40.3%First five-rounder vs a veteran: 40.3% of 298 fights (95% range 34.9 to 45.9%)First five-rounder vs a veteran298 fights40.3%
Every Lab finding against a coin flipOne row per question: how often the named fighter won, with a 95% range, against a dashed 50% line. The cards below repeat each answer in words.30%40%50%60%70%80%50%, a coin flipYounger, 10 years or more: 69.5% of 508 fights (95% range 65.4 to 73.3%)Younger, 10 years or more508 fights69.5%Title experience vs a first-timer: 65.1% of 209 fights (95% range 58.4 to 71.2%)Title experience vs a first-timer209 fights65.1%Longer win run, 6 or more: 64.2% of 321 fights (95% range 58.8 to 69.2%)Longer win run, 6 or more321 fights64.2%Won the previous meeting: 59.8% of 194 fights (95% range 52.8 to 66.4%)Won the previous meeting194 fights59.8%Longer reach, 7 inches or more: 59.5% of 375 fights (95% range 54.4 to 64.3%)Longer reach, 7 inches or more375 fights59.5%Southpaw vs orthodox: 53.4% of 2,450 fights (95% range 51.4 to 55.4%)Southpaw vs orthodox2,450 fights53.4%Taller, 5 inches or more: 53.3% of 657 fights (95% range 49.4 to 57.1%)Taller, 5 inches or more657 fights53.3%Debutant vs a UFC veteran: 41.8% of 1,661 fights (95% range 39.5 to 44.2%)Debutant vs a UFC veteran1,661 fights41.8%Back from a year or more out: 40.3% of 1,142 fights (95% range 37.5 to 43.2%)Back from a year or more out1,142 fights40.3%First five-rounder vs a veteran: 40.3% of 298 fights (95% range 34.9 to 45.9%)First five-rounder vs a veteran298 fights40.3%

The body

What a fighter brings to the scales

Does reach matter in the UFC?Reach: 59.5% in the headline rowYes: the fighter with the longer reach has won 59.5% of UFC fights where the reach gap was 7 inches or more, against 50.1% when it was 1 to 2 inches.375 fights in the headline rowDoes height matter in the UFC?Height: 53.3% in the headline rowNot clearly: the taller fighter has won 53.3% of UFC fights with a height gap of 5 inches or more, and 51.5% when the gap was 1 to 2 inches.657 fights in the headline rowDoes age matter in the UFC?Age: 69.5% in the headline rowYes, clearly: the younger fighter has won 69.5% of UFC fights where the age gap was 10 years or more, and 56.7% when it was 2 to 3 years.508 fights in the headline row

Experience

What they have done before

How do fighters do on their UFC debut?UFC debut: 41.8% in the headline rowWorse than a coin flip: fighters making their UFC debut against someone who had fought in the UFC before have won 41.8% of those fights, and it barely moves with how experienced the opponent was.1,661 fights in the headline rowDo winning and losing streaks matter in the UFC?Streaks: 64.2% in the headline rowYes, clearly: the fighter on the longer UFC winning run has won 64.2% of fights when that run was 6 or more, and 56.3% when it was 3; a fighter on 3 or more straight losses has won 40.4% against an opponent coming off a win.321 fights in the headline rowDoes ring rust show up in UFC results?Time away: 40.3% in the headline rowYes: a fighter returning from a year or more away has won 40.3% of UFC fights against an opponent who had fought within the previous year.1,142 fights in the headline rowDoes the first fight's winner win the UFC rematch?Rematches: 59.8% in the headline rowYes: the winner of the previous meeting has won 59.8% of UFC rematches.194 fights in the headline row

The fight

The kind of fight it is

Does five-round experience matter in the UFC?Five-round fights: 40.3% in the headline rowYes: a fighter in a first five-round UFC fight has won 40.3% against an opponent who had fought five rounds before.298 fights in the headline rowDoes title-fight experience matter in the UFC?Title fights: 65.1% in the headline rowYes, clearly: in UFC title fights, the fighter who had fought for a title before has beaten a first-time challenger 65.1% of the time.209 fights in the headline rowDo two finishers make for a finish in the UFC?Finishers: 64.4% in the headline rowYes, clearly: when both fighters were finishers, 64.4% of UFC fights ended inside the distance, against 53.2% of all UFC fights and 30.7% between two decision winners.550 fights in the headline rowDo southpaws have an advantage in the UFC?Stance: 53.4% in the headline rowBarely: southpaws have beaten orthodox fighters in 53.4% of UFC fights between the two, and switch-stance fighters have won 52.0% against orthodox.2,450 fights in the headline row

Correlations

Which fighter numbers travel with winning

Which fighter stats go with winning in the UFC?Correlation with winning: Striking accuracy r 0.28; Strikes absorbed per minute r -0.26; Takedown defence r 0.25; Takedowns per 15 minutes r 0.22; Submission attempts per 15 minutes r 0.01; Age at UFC debut r -0.15; Reach r 0.07; Age on fight night vs being knocked out r 0.10Striking accuracy and strikes absorbed per minute have the strongest links to a fighter's UFC win rate (r = 0.28 and −0.26); submission attempts per 15 minutes have almost none (r = 0.01).1,260 fighters with 5+ UFC fights

How the Lab works

Every number is counted from the official UFC statistical record at each build, and every answer carries its sample size and a 95% range. A row resting on fewer than 30 fights is never quoted. These pages describe what has happened; they are history, not a prediction, and correlation is not causation.