11:54
median time
Bantamweight · 3 rounds · UFC Edmonton (UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott) · 17 Oct 2026
FightIQ's read: Steven Koslow over Chad Anheliger at 57% confidence — a lean.
That read sits 11.2pp above the sportsbook line's implied 46% on Steven Koslow.
Most likely outcome: a decision at 52% (KO/TKO 28%, submission 20%, decision 52%) — a lean rather than a call.
The model gives it a 52% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 11:54.
Live on Polymarket, Steven Koslow is priced around 48%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
Published 11 Oct 2026, 09:08 UTC — before the fight. Graded on this page after it.
Our record at this confidence: LOW picks are 56-27 (67.5%, n=83) in 2026. Every graded pick · How well our confidence is calibrated
Koslow is 10 years younger. With an age gap of 10 years or more, the younger fighter wins 70% of UFC fights (353 of 508 fights).
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
The sportsbook line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Since the open, the market has drifted away from our pick: Steven Koslow's implied chance moved down from 59% to 48% (−11.5pp).
| Series | Open | Low | High | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Anheliger — sportsbook consensus | 54.3% | 54.3% | 54.3% | 54.3% | −0.0pp |
| Steven Koslow — sportsbook consensus | 45.7% | 45.7% | 45.7% | 45.7% | −0.0pp |
| Chad Anheliger — Polymarket | 41.0% | 41.0% | 53.0% | 52.5% | +11.5pp |
| Steven Koslow — Polymarket | 59.0% | 47.0% | 59.0% | 47.5% | −11.5pp |
The facts, side by side — Chad Anheliger vs Steven Koslow.
| UFC 2-3 | UFC record | UFC 0-1 |
| 13-8 | Pro record | 6-1 |
| The Monster | Nickname | Obi Won Shinobi The Pillow |
| 5' 6" | Height | 5' 7" |
| 64" | Reach | 69" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Switch |
| 39 | Age | 29 |
| 135 lbs. | Weight | 135 lbs. |
| Canada | Nationality | United States |
| Consort, Alberta | Hometown (per Sherdog) | Jacksonville, Florida |
| Champion's Creed MMA | Camp | 10th Planet Jiu Jitsu Jacksonville |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Chad Anheliger5 UFC fights · 228 landed
Steven Koslow1 UFC fights · 11 landed
Limited sampleSignificant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Chad Anheliger
Steven Koslow
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.50 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Chad Anheliger (left) vs Steven Koslow (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
5' 6" orthodox all-rounder campaigning at Bantamweight. 2 UFC wins — 1 KO/TKO, 1 decision.
5' 7" switch wrestler campaigning at Bantamweight.