15:00
median time
Welterweight · 5 rounds · UFC Edmonton (UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott) · 17 Oct 2026
FightIQ's read: Mike Malott over Joaquin Buckley at 55% confidence — a coin-flip.
That read sits 2.2pp below the sportsbook line's implied 57% on Mike Malott.
Most likely outcome: KO/TKO at 52% (KO/TKO 52%, submission 14%, decision 34%) — a lean rather than a call.
The model gives it a 34% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 15:00.
Live on Polymarket, Mike Malott is priced around 55%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
Published 11 Oct 2026, 14:06 UTC — before the fight. Graded on this page after it.
Our record at this confidence: TOSS-UP picks are 41-43 (48.8%, n=84) in 2026. Every graded pick · How well our confidence is calibrated
Both fighters finish: at least two thirds of their UFC wins ended inside the distance. When two finishers meet, 64% of UFC fights end inside the distance (354 of 550 fights). Across every UFC fight it is 53%.
Malott comes in on a 4-fight UFC winning run. A fighter on a run of 4 or 5 against an opponent on a shorter one wins 57% of the time (367 of 639 fights).
Buckley is 2 years younger. With an age gap of 2 to 3 years, the younger fighter wins 57% of UFC fights (1,252 of 2,209 fights).
History leans Buckley on 1 of these; our model still picks Malott.
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
The sportsbook line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Mike Malott's implied chance drifted up from 47% to 55% (+7.5pp) over this window.
| Series | Open | Low | High | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley — sportsbook consensus | 42.6% | 42.6% | 43.5% | 43.5% | +0.9pp |
| Mike Malott — sportsbook consensus | 57.4% | 56.5% | 57.4% | 56.5% | −0.9pp |
| Joaquin Buckley — Polymarket | 53.0% | 42.5% | 53.0% | 45.5% | −7.5pp |
| Mike Malott — Polymarket | 47.0% | 47.0% | 57.5% | 54.5% | +7.5pp |
The facts, side by side — Joaquin Buckley vs Mike Malott.
| UFC 11-6 | UFC record | UFC 7-1 |
| 21-8 | Pro record | 14-2-1 |
| New Mansa | Nickname | Proper |
| 5' 10" | Height | 6' 1" |
| 76" | Reach | 73" |
| Southpaw | Stance | Orthodox |
| 32 | Age | 34 |
| 170 lbs. | Weight | 170 lbs. |
| United States | Nationality | Canada |
| St. Louis, Missouri, United States | Born in | Burlington, Ontario, Canada |
| St. Louis, Missouri, United States | Fights out of | Burlington, Ontario, Canada |
| Murcielago MMA | Camp | Team Alpha Male |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Joaquin Buckley17 UFC fights · 723 landed
Mike Malott8 UFC fights · 301 landed
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Joaquin Buckley
Mike Malott
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.27 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Joaquin Buckley (left) vs Mike Malott (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
5' 10" southpaw power striker campaigning at Welterweight. 11 UFC wins — 8 KO/TKO, 3 decision.
6' 1" orthodox knockout puncher campaigning at Welterweight. 7 UFC wins — 3 KO/TKO, 2 submission, 2 decision.