Our model flagged five of the 12 bouts it priced for Saturday's card at Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale, Arizona, and the fighters carrying its strongest numbers are mostly not the ones on the poster.
Model numbers as of Monday morning. The card page carries the live figure; these reads move with the prices, and by Saturday they will not match this page to the decimal.
Jean Silva is the exception. The model puts him at 81.6% against Jose Miguel Delgado in the five-round main event, above the market's 77.1%, and calls a KO/TKO at 41% in a finish read that never gets clear of a three-way split.
The other four flagged picks are David Martinez at 81.1% over Dan Ige, Yousri Belgaroui at 83.7% over Djorden Santos, Ignacio Bahamondes at 82.1% over Muslim Salikhov and Regina Tarin at 81.7% over JJ Aldrich.
Tarin is the one to watch, because she carries the widest disagreement on the card. The market prices her at 70.2% and the model is 11.5 percentage points above that. The next widest gaps in the model's direction are Martinez at 6.7 points and Sean King, at 60.6% over Jessie Rosas, at 5.7.
Belgaroui is the opposite case. His 83.7% is the biggest number the model puts on any Glendale fighter, and it still sits below the market's 84.8%. The model likes him, and the book likes him more.
The three most familiar names on the card draw no conviction at all.
The model has Manon Fiorot at 63.8% against Alexa Grasso, under the market's 66.3%, though it is unusually sure how that one ends. It calls a decision at 77%, the clearest method read anywhere on the card.
It leans against Brandon Moreno, barely. Joseph Morales comes out at 53.6%, which is a coin flip wearing a pick's clothes, and the market has Morales a shade higher again at 53.9%.
Against Curtis Blaydes it takes Waldo Cortes Acosta at 69.1%, about 4.6 points above the market, with a KO/TKO at 50%.
The card's two biggest disagreements run the other way, and both are the model refusing to follow a favorite. It has Tommy McMillen at 50.8% against Marwan Rahiki where the market has him at 60.3%, and Tommy Gantt at 72.5% against Drakkar Klose where the market has him at 80.4%. In the first of those the model has all but talked itself into a coin flip on a fighter the book calls a clear favorite.
One bout on the 13-fight card carries no prediction at all. Rafa Garcia against Rongzhu is withheld because no market odds reached the model. We do not publish a prediction built on placeholder odds, so that bout stays blank rather than get a number it has not earned.
The model's 2026 season record stands at 254-110, or 69.78%, across 30 graded cards, as of Sept. 5. That counts every pick, including the toss-ups.