9:25
median time
Bantamweight · 3 rounds · UFC Edmonton (UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott) · 17 Oct 2026
FightIQ's read: Louis Jourdain over Timmy Cuamba at 59% confidence — a lean.
That read sits 0.0pp above the sportsbook line's implied 59% on Louis Jourdain.
Most likely outcome: a decision at 41% (KO/TKO 31%, submission 28%, decision 41%) — but all three outcomes stay live.
The model gives it a 41% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 9:25.
Live on Polymarket, Louis Jourdain is priced around 64%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
Published 10 Oct 2026, 09:11 UTC — before the fight. Graded on this page after it.
Jourdain’s UFC debut, against a fighter with 5 UFC fights. Debutants facing an opponent with 4 to 9 UFC fights win 41% of the time (215 of 525 fights).
History leans Cuamba on 1 of these; our model still picks Jourdain.
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
The sportsbook line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Since the open, the market has drifted toward our pick: Louis Jourdain's implied chance moved up from 59% to 64% (+4.5pp).
| Series | Open | Low | High | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Jourdain — sportsbook consensus | 59.1% | 59.1% | 62.6% | 62.6% | +3.5pp |
| Timmy Cuamba — sportsbook consensus | 40.9% | 37.4% | 40.9% | 37.4% | −3.5pp |
| Louis Jourdain — Polymarket | 59.0% | 58.0% | 63.5% | 63.5% | +4.5pp |
| Timmy Cuamba — Polymarket | 41.0% | 36.5% | 42.0% | 36.5% | −4.5pp |
The facts, side by side — Louis Jourdain vs Timmy Cuamba.
| — | UFC record | UFC 2-3 |
| 9-3 | Pro record | 10-4 |
| 5' 9" | Height | 5' 9" |
| 69" | Reach | 71" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 29 | Age | 27 |
| 135 lbs. | Weight | 135 lbs. |
| Canada | Nationality | — |
| Beloeil, Quebec | Hometown (per Sherdog) | — |
| Academie Pro Star MMA | Camp | — |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Where the strikes go — and where they land on him. Career UFC totals, straight off the tape.
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Louis Jourdain
Timmy Cuamba
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.50 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Louis Jourdain (left) vs Timmy Cuamba (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
5' 9" orthodox volume boxer campaigning at Bantamweight.
5' 9" orthodox all-rounder campaigning at Bantamweight. 2 UFC wins — 1 KO/TKO, 1 decision.