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Billy Elekana vs Lucas Fernando prediction

Light Heavyweight · Bonfim vs Brady · 7 Nov 2026
UFC 3-1 · Pro 10-2
VS
UFC 1-0 · Pro 14-3

Prediction

early read
Lucas Fernando 54%
46%54%
as of 11 Oct 2026, 09:03 UTC

By the numbers

  • Win streaks

    Elekana comes in on a 3-fight UFC winning run. A fighter on a run of 3 against an opponent on a shorter one wins 56% of the time (435 of 773 fights).

History leans Elekana on 1 of these; our early read still favours Fernando.

Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.

Tale of the tape

The facts, side by side — Billy Elekana vs Lucas Fernando.

Red corner BillyElekana“Son of Susie”Uprising MMA · Born in Victorville, California, United States · Fights out of Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
VSUpcoming
Blue corner LucasFernandoRizzo RVT · Hometown (per Sherdog): Rio de Janeiro
Light HeavyweightPicks published · graded in public after the card
The story
  • Comes in on a 3-fight win streak.
  • Lands 1.0 more significant strikes a minute than Elekana.
  • Has finished 2 of 3 UFC wins.
10-2
Record
14-3
31
Age
−2 yr29
6' 3"
Height
6' 3"
77″
Reach
+3″80″
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
+34
UFC bouts
1
2/367% of wins
Finishes
1/1100% of wins
Uprising MMA
Gym
Rizzo RVT
Las Vegas, Nevada, United Statesfights out of
From
Rio de Janeirohometown, per Sherdog
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s.
All the vitals, as a table
UFC 3-1UFC recordUFC 1-0
10-2Pro record14-3
Son of SusieNickname—
6' 3"Height6' 3"
77"Reach80"
SouthpawStanceOrthodox
31Age29
205 lbs.Weight205 lbs.
United StatesNationalityBrazil
Victorville, California, United StatesBorn in—
Las Vegas, Nevada, United StatesFights out of—
—Hometown (per Sherdog)Rio de Janeiro
Uprising MMACampRizzo RVT
Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality and camp from the public fighter register. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. The UFC record is counted from the official results themselves.

FightIQ Metrics

Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.

Billy ElekanaLucas Fernando
66
Striking
78
44
Defence
56
30
Grappling / TD
41
54 limited sample
Cardio
83 limited sample
70
Chin
76 limited sample
53
Fight IQ
67
Our read — derived, not official stats. Ranked within weight class.

Strike zones

Strike zones

Where they go — head to head

Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Billy Elekana4 UFC fights · 96 landed

69.8%
HEAD
53.6%
25.0%
BODY
26.1%
5.2%
LEGS
20.3%

Lucas Fernando1 UFC fights · 69 landed

Limited sample

Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.

Takedowns

Takedowns

The level change — head to head

Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Billy Elekana

0.85takedowns / 15 min
0.85 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
1.72 / 15m
3.86 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
5.73 / 15m
22%
ACCURACY
30%
0.80 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.60 / 15m

Lucas Fernando

1.72takedowns / 15 min

Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (6.25 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.

Ranked in Light Heavyweight

Stats comparison

Billy Elekana (left) vs Lucas Fernando (right) — career striking & grappling rates.

Strikes landed / min
2.71
vs
3.71
Striking accuracy
56%
vs
57%
Strikes absorbed / min
3.59
vs
3.21
Striking defence
46%
vs
51%
Takedowns / 15 min
0.85
vs
1.72
Takedown accuracy
22%
vs
30%
Takedown defence
0%
vs
0%
Sub attempts / 15 min
0.8
vs
0.6
Career averages from public UFC statistics.

Bios

Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.

Billy ElekanaFightIQ profileAll-rounder

6' 3" southpaw all-rounder campaigning at Light Heavyweight. 3 UFC wins — 2 submission, 1 decision.

Built from Billy Elekana’s own fight record and striking and grappling figures, recomputed for this build. Full profile →
Lucas FernandoFightIQ profileAll-rounder

6' 3" orthodox all-rounder campaigning at Light Heavyweight. 1 UFC win — 1 KO/TKO.

Built from Lucas Fernando’s own fight record and striking and grappling figures, recomputed for this build. Full profile →

Go deeper

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