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Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid prediction

Featherweight · Bonfim vs Brady · 7 Nov 2026
UFC 1-0 · Pro 8-1
VS
UFC 0-1 · Pro 4-3

Prediction

early read
Keiichiro Nakamura 56%
56%44%
as of 11 Oct 2026, 09:03 UTC

By the numbers

  • Age

    Schmid is 2 years younger. With an age gap of 2 to 3 years, the younger fighter wins 57% of UFC fights (1,252 of 2,209 fights).

History leans Schmid on 1 of these; our early read still favours Nakamura.

Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.

Tale of the tape

The facts, side by side — Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid.

Red corner KeiichiroNakamuraEXFIGHT · Hometown (per Sherdog): Yoichi, Hokkaido
VSUpcoming
Blue corner OllieSchmidCity Kickboxing · From Hungary
FeatherweightPicks published · graded in public after the card
8-1
Record
4-3
27
Age
−2 yr25
5' 10"
Height
+2″6' 0"
70″
Reach
+1″71″
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
1
UFC bouts
1
EXFIGHT
Gym
City Kickboxing
Yoichi, Hokkaidohometown, per Sherdog
From
Hungary
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s.
All the vitals, as a table
UFC 1-0UFC recordUFC 0-1
8-1Pro record4-3
5' 10"Height6' 0"
70"Reach71"
SouthpawStanceOrthodox
27Age25
145 lbs.Weight145 lbs.
JapanNationalityHungary
Yoichi, HokkaidoHometown (per Sherdog)—
EXFIGHTCampCity Kickboxing
Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality and camp from the public fighter register. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. The UFC record is counted from the official results themselves.

FightIQ Metrics

Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.

Keiichiro NakamuraOllie Schmid
62
Striking
34
58
Defence
13
n/a
Grappling / TD
n/a
73 limited sample
Cardio
n/a
62 limited sample
Chin
8 limited sample
64
Fight IQ
18
Our read — derived, not official stats. Ranked within weight class.

Strike zones

Strike zones

Where they go — head to head

Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Keiichiro Nakamura1 UFC fights · 45 landed

Limited sample
46.7%
HEAD
0.0%
24.4%
BODY
33.3%
28.9%
LEGS
66.7%

Ollie Schmid1 UFC fights · 9 landed

Limited sample

Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.

Takedowns

Takedowns

Keiichiro Nakamura

The level change — how often it lands, how often it is stopped. Career UFC rates, straight off the tape.

0.00takedowns / 15 min
FightIQ read Rarely shoots 0.00 takedowns landed per 15 minutes — −2.58 on the field average.
Career ratesvs field average
TAKEDOWNS
0.00 / 15m−2.58 vs field
ATTEMPTS
Attempts per 15 needs both a landed rate and a completion rate; one of them is missing, so we do not divide.
n/a
ACCURACY
No takedown attempt on the record — UFCStats writes 0% here, which is not a completion rate.
n/a
SUB ATT
0.00 / 15m−1.27 vs field

Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (6.09 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.

Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.

Ranked in Featherweight

Stats comparison

Keiichiro Nakamura (left) vs Ollie Schmid (right) — career striking & grappling rates.

Strikes landed / min
4.48
vs
3.23
Striking accuracy
41%
vs
30%
Strikes absorbed / min
4.28
vs
7.9
Striking defence
63%
vs
45%
Takedowns / 15 min
0
vs
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
vs
0%
Takedown defence
78%
vs
0%
Sub attempts / 15 min
0
vs
0
Career averages from public UFC statistics.

Bios

Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.

Keiichiro NakamuraFightIQ profileAll-rounder

5' 10" southpaw all-rounder campaigning at Featherweight. 1 UFC win — 1 KO/TKO.

Built from Keiichiro Nakamura’s own fight record and striking and grappling figures, recomputed for this build. Full profile →
Ollie SchmidFightIQ profileAll-rounder

6' 0" orthodox all-rounder campaigning at Featherweight.

Built from Ollie Schmid’s own fight record and striking and grappling figures, recomputed for this build. Full profile →

Go deeper

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