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FightIQ · The Lab · Streaks

Do winning and losing streaks matter in the UFC?

Yes, clearly: the fighter on the longer UFC winning run has won 64.2% of fights when that run was 6 or more, and 56.3% when it was 3; a fighter on 3 or more straight losses has won 40.4% against an opponent coming off a win.

Headline: 64.2% of 321 fights, 95% range 58.8% to 69.2% · counted from 8,760 UFC fights with a winner, 11 March 1994 to 10 October 2026
Do winning and losing streaks matter in the UFC? How often the fighter on the run won, row by rowEach row is a group of UFC fights; the dot is how often the fighter on the run won, the whisker its 95% range, the dashed line 50%, a coin flip. Headline row: 64.2% of 321 fights. Rows under 30 fights are not drawn.20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%50%, a coin flipThe rows the fight-page cards useWon the last 3: 56.3% of 773 fights (95% range 52.8 to 59.7%)Won the last 3773 fights56.3%Won the last 4 or 5: 57.4% of 639 fights (95% range 53.6 to 61.2%)Won the last 4 or 5639 fights57.4%Won the last 6 or more: 64.2% of 321 fights (95% range 58.8 to 69.2%)Won the last 6 or more321 fights64.2%2 straight losses: 43.7% of 270 fights (95% range 37.9 to 49.7%)2 straight losses270 fights43.7%3 or more straight losses: 40.4% of 114 fights (95% range 31.8 to 49.5%)3 or more straight losses114 fights40.4%Length of the winning run3 wins: 56.3% of 773 fights (95% range 52.8 to 59.7%)3 wins773 fights56.3%4 wins: 54.8% of 418 fights (95% range 50.0 to 59.5%)4 wins418 fights54.8%5 wins: 62.4% of 221 fights (95% range 55.9 to 68.6%)5 wins221 fights62.4%6 wins: 60.6% of 132 fights (95% range 52.1 to 68.5%)6 wins132 fights60.6%7 wins: 56.8% of 74 fights (95% range 45.4 to 67.4%)7 wins74 fights56.8%8 wins: 69.2% of 39 fights (95% range 53.6 to 81.4%)8 wins39 fights69.2%9+ wins: 75.0% of 76 fights (95% range 64.2 to 83.4%)9+ wins76 fights75.0%Length of the losing run2 losses: 43.7% of 270 fights (95% range 37.9 to 49.7%)2 losses270 fights43.7%3+ losses: 40.4% of 114 fights (95% range 31.8 to 49.5%)3+ losses114 fights40.4%
Do winning and losing streaks matter in the UFC? How often the fighter on the run won, row by rowEach row is a group of UFC fights; the dot is how often the fighter on the run won, the whisker its 95% range, the dashed line 50%, a coin flip. Headline row: 64.2% of 321 fights. Rows under 30 fights are not drawn.20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%50%, a coin flipThe rows the fight-page cards useWon the last 3: 56.3% of 773 fights (95% range 52.8 to 59.7%)Won the last 3773 fights56.3%Won the last 4 or 5: 57.4% of 639 fights (95% range 53.6 to 61.2%)Won the last 4 or 5639 fights57.4%Won the last 6 or more: 64.2% of 321 fights (95% range 58.8 to 69.2%)Won the last 6 or more321 fights64.2%2 straight losses: 43.7% of 270 fights (95% range 37.9 to 49.7%)2 straight losses270 fights43.7%3 or more straight losses: 40.4% of 114 fights (95% range 31.8 to 49.5%)3 or more straight losses114 fights40.4%Length of the winning run3 wins: 56.3% of 773 fights (95% range 52.8 to 59.7%)3 wins773 fights56.3%4 wins: 54.8% of 418 fights (95% range 50.0 to 59.5%)4 wins418 fights54.8%5 wins: 62.4% of 221 fights (95% range 55.9 to 68.6%)5 wins221 fights62.4%6 wins: 60.6% of 132 fights (95% range 52.1 to 68.5%)6 wins132 fights60.6%7 wins: 56.8% of 74 fights (95% range 45.4 to 67.4%)7 wins74 fights56.8%8 wins: 69.2% of 39 fights (95% range 53.6 to 81.4%)8 wins39 fights69.2%9+ wins: 75.0% of 76 fights (95% range 64.2 to 83.4%)9+ wins76 fights75.0%Length of the losing run2 losses: 43.7% of 270 fights (95% range 37.9 to 49.7%)2 losses270 fights43.7%3+ losses: 40.4% of 114 fights (95% range 31.8 to 49.5%)3+ losses114 fights40.4%
How often the fighter on the run won, with a 95% range on every row. filled: clear of the dashed linehollow: could be chanceRows resting on fewer than 30 fights are not drawn.

What this means for a fight

Form shows up in the record at both ends. A three-fight winning run is a mild signal and a run of six or more a much stronger one; a fighter on a losing run, facing someone who won their last fight, starts behind.

Correlation is not causation. A long winning run is mostly evidence that the fighter is good, not a force of its own, and the run may have come against weaker opposition than the fight in front of them.

The latest fights in the headline row

The most recent UFC fights counted in the headline row (6 or more).

The numbers

The rows the fight-page cards use

GroupFightsWin rate95% range
Won the last 377356.3%52.8 to 59.7%
Won the last 4 or 563957.4%53.6 to 61.2%
Won the last 6 or more (headline)32164.2%58.8 to 69.2%
2 straight losses27043.7%37.9 to 49.7%
3 or more straight losses11440.4%31.8 to 49.5%

Length of the winning run

GroupFightsWin rate95% range
3 wins77356.3%52.8 to 59.7%
4 wins41854.8%50.0 to 59.5%
5 wins22162.4%55.9 to 68.6%
6 wins13260.6%52.1 to 68.5%
7 wins7456.8%45.4 to 67.4%
8 wins3969.2%53.6 to 81.4%
9+ wins7675.0%64.2 to 83.4%

Length of the losing run

GroupFightsWin rate95% range
2 losses27043.7%37.9 to 49.7%
3+ losses11440.4%31.8 to 49.5%

Has it held over time? (6 or more)

YearsFightsWin rate95% range
1994 to 20059fewer than 30 fights, too few to call
2006 to 20158764.4%53.9 to 73.6%
2016 to today22565.3%58.9 to 71.2%

How we counted

Every UFC bout on the official statistical record from 11 March 1994 to 10 October 2026 that had a winner. Draws, no-contests and overturned results are left out of every count. A winning run is consecutive UFC wins before the bout; any loss, draw or no-contest resets it. It is counted when the longer run is 3 or more and the two runs differ. Where no such run applies, a losing run of 2 or more is counted when the opponent won their last UFC fight; a win, draw or no-contest resets a losing run.

Anything built from a fighter's history (debuts, runs, breaks, previous meetings) only looks at UFC bouts dated before the fight, and leaves out the few names the register holds for two different fighters. A row needs at least 30 fights to be drawn or quoted; smaller rows are listed as too few to call. The 95% range is a Wilson interval: where the true rate probably sits, given how many fights there are.