Austin Bashi vs Lucas Brennan Prediction

Prediction

early read

Austin Bashi 71%

71%29%

as of 11 Oct 2026, 09:03 UTC

Tale of the tape

The facts, side by side — Austin Bashi vs Lucas Brennan.

Red corner AustinBashiWarrior Way Martial Arts · Hometown (per Sherdog): West Bloomfield Township, Michigan

VSUpcoming

Blue corner LucasBrennanNext Generation MMA Frisco · Born in Irvine, California, United States · Fights out of Frisco, Texas

FeatherweightPicks published · graded in public after the card

14-2

Record

11-3

−1 yr25

Age

26

5' 6"

Height

+4″5' 10"

70″

Reach

+2″72″

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

+23

UFC bouts

1

Warrior Way Martial Arts

Gym

Next Generation MMA Frisco

West Bloomfield Township, Michiganhometown, per Sherdog

From

Frisco, Texasfights out of

Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s.

All the vitals, as a table

UFC 1-2	UFC record	UFC 0-1
14-2	Pro record	11-3
5' 6"	Height	5' 10"
70"	Reach	72"
Orthodox	Stance	Southpaw
25	Age	26
145 lbs.	Weight	145 lbs.
United States	Nationality	United States
—	Born in	Irvine, California, United States
—	Fights out of	Frisco, Texas
West Bloomfield Township, Michigan	Hometown (per Sherdog)	—
Warrior Way Martial Arts	Camp	Next Generation MMA Frisco

Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality and camp from the public fighter register. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. The UFC record is counted from the official results themselves.

FightIQ Metrics

Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.

Austin BashiLucas Brennan

36

Striking

4

60

Defence

63

71

Grappling / TD

63

43

Cardio

47 limited sample

50 limited sample

Chin

57 limited sample

52

Fight IQ

47

Our read — derived, not official stats. Ranked within weight class.

Strike zones

Where they go — head to head

Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Austin Bashi3 UFC fights · 57 landed

64.9%

HEAD

44.5%

28.1%

BODY

22.2%

7.0%

LEGS

33.3%

Lucas Brennan1 UFC fights · 9 landed

Limited sample

Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.

Takedowns

The level change — head to head

Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Austin Bashi

6.09 / 15m

TAKEDOWNS

0.00 / 15m

17.40 / 15m

ATTEMPTS

n/a

35%

ACCURACY

n/a

1.40 / 15m

SUB ATT

1.00 / 15m

Lucas Brennan

Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.50 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.

Ranked roster-wide

Stats comparison

Austin Bashi (left) vs Lucas Brennan (right) — career striking & grappling rates.

Strikes landed / min

1.89

vs

0.6

Striking accuracy

42%

vs

25%

Strikes absorbed / min

2.34

vs

2.2

Striking defence

52%

vs

52%

Takedowns / 15 min

6.09

vs

0

Takedown accuracy

35%

vs

0%

Takedown defence

63%

vs

33%

Sub attempts / 15 min

1.4

vs

1

Career averages from public UFC statistics.

Bios

Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.

Austin BashiFightIQ profileWrestler

5' 6" orthodox wrestler campaigning at Featherweight. 1 UFC win — 1 submission.

Built from Austin Bashi’s own fight record and striking and grappling figures, recomputed for this build. Full profile →

Lucas BrennanFightIQ profileAll-rounder

5' 10" southpaw all-rounder campaigning at Lightweight.

Built from Lucas Brennan’s own fight record and striking and grappling figures, recomputed for this build. Full profile →

Go deeper

Austin Bashi’s fighter page →Lucas Brennan’s fighter page →Every current pick →

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Austin Bashi vs Lucas Brennan prediction