Macy Chiasson vs Bia Mesquita Prediction

Prediction

early read

Bia Mesquita 58%

42%58%

as of 11 Oct 2026, 09:03 UTC

By the numbers

Win streaks
Mesquita comes in on a 3-fight UFC winning run. A fighter on a run of 3 against an opponent on a shorter one wins 56% of the time (435 of 773 fights).
How we know →

Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.

Tale of the tape

The facts, side by side — Macy Chiasson vs Bia Mesquita.

Red corner MacyChiasson

VSUpcoming

Blue corner BiaMesquita

Women's BantamweightPicks published · graded in public after the card

The story

Has dropped 3 straight in the UFC.
Unbeaten — 3-0 in the UFC.
Has finished 5 of 8 UFC wins.
Every one of Mesquita’s 3 UFC wins came inside the distance.

11-6

Record

8-0

Age

+7″5' 11"

Height

5' 4"

+5″72″

Reach

67″

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

+1114

UFC bouts

5/862% of wins

Finishes

+38%3/3100% of wins

Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s.

All the vitals, as a table

UFC 8-6	UFC record	UFC 3-0
11-6	Pro record	8-0
5' 11"	Height	5' 4"
72"	Reach	67"
Orthodox	Stance	Orthodox
35	Age	35
135 lbs.	Weight	135 lbs.

Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality and camp from the public fighter register. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. The UFC record is counted from the official results themselves.

FightIQ Metrics

Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.

Macy ChiassonBia Mesquita

Striking

Defence

Grappling / TD

Cardio

36 limited sample

Chin

42 limited sample

Fight IQ

Our read — derived, not official stats. Ranked within weight class.

Strike zones

Where they go — head to head

Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Macy Chiasson14 UFC fights · 490 landed

54.7%

HEAD

93.0%

35.3%

BODY

3.5%

10.0%

LEGS

3.5%

Bia Mesquita3 UFC fights · 57 landed

Limited sample

Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.

Takedowns

The level change — head to head

Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Macy Chiasson

1.87 / 15m

TAKEDOWNS

3.57 / 15m

5.34 / 15m

ATTEMPTS

4.76 / 15m

35%

ACCURACY

75%

0.40 / 15m

SUB ATT

3.60 / 15m

Bia Mesquita

Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.00 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.

Ranked in Women's Bantamweight

Stats comparison

Macy Chiasson (left) vs Bia Mesquita (right) — career striking & grappling rates.

Strikes landed / min

3.21

4.52

Striking accuracy

46%

57%

Strikes absorbed / min

2.76

1.27

Striking defence

44%

71%

Takedowns / 15 min

1.87

3.57

Takedown accuracy

35%

75%

Takedown defence

62%

Sub attempts / 15 min

0.4

3.6

Career averages from public UFC statistics.

Bios

Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.

Macy ChiassonFightIQ profileAll-rounder

5' 11" orthodox all-rounder campaigning at Women's Bantamweight. 8 UFC wins — 3 KO/TKO, 2 submission, 3 decision.

Built from Macy Chiasson’s own fight record and striking and grappling figures, recomputed for this build. Full profile →

Bia MesquitaFightIQ profileGrappling-led all-rounder

5' 4" orthodox grappling-led all-rounder campaigning at Women's Bantamweight. 3 UFC wins — 3 submission.

Built from Bia Mesquita’s own fight record and striking and grappling figures, recomputed for this build. Full profile →

Go deeper

Macy Chiasson’s fighter page →Bia Mesquita’s fighter page →Every current pick →

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Macy Chiasson vs Bia Mesquita prediction