Nazim Sadykhov vs Jefferson Nascimento Prediction & Odds

Prediction

early read

Nazim Sadykhov 52%

52%48%

as of 11 Oct 2026, 09:03 UTC

By the numbers

Age
Nascimento is 4 years younger. With an age gap of 4 to 5 years, the younger fighter wins 56% of UFC fights (929 of 1,653 fights).
How we know →

History leans Nascimento on 1 of these; our early read still favours Sadykhov.

Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.

Tale of the tape

The facts, side by side — Nazim Sadykhov vs Jefferson Nascimento.

Red corner NazimSadykhov“Black Wolf”Longo-Weidman MMA · Born in Moscow, Russia · Fights out of Brooklyn, New York City, United States

VSUpcoming

Blue corner JeffersonNascimentoFrom Brazil

LightweightPicks published · graded in public after the card

The story

Has dropped 2 straight in the UFC.
Carries 8 points more striking defence than Sadykhov.
Every one of Sadykhov’s 4 UFC wins came inside the distance.

11-3-1

Record

13-1

Age

−5 yr27

+2″5' 10"

Height

5' 8"

69″

Reach

+1″70″

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

+67

UFC bouts

Brooklyn, New York City, United Statesfights out of

From

Brazil

Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s.

All the vitals, as a table

UFC 4-2 (1 draw/NC)	UFC record	UFC 0-1
11-3-1	Pro record	13-1
Black Wolf	Nickname	—
5' 10"	Height	5' 8"
69"	Reach	70"
Southpaw	Stance	Orthodox
32	Age	27
155 lbs.	Weight	155 lbs.
Azerbaijan	Nationality	Brazil
Moscow, Russia	Born in	—
Brooklyn, New York City, United States	Fights out of	—
Longo-Weidman MMA	Camp	—

Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality and camp from the public fighter register. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. The UFC record is counted from the official results themselves.

FightIQ Metrics

Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.

Nazim SadykhovJefferson Nascimento

Striking

Defence

Grappling / TD

n/a

Cardio

43 limited sample

Chin

35 limited sample

Fight IQ

Our read — derived, not official stats. Ranked within weight class.

Strike zones

Where they go — head to head

Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Nazim Sadykhov7 UFC fights · 273 landed

65.6%

HEAD

31.4%

23.8%

BODY

54.3%

10.6%

LEGS

14.3%

Jefferson Nascimento1 UFC fights · 35 landed

Limited sample

Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.

Takedowns

The level change — head to head

Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Nazim Sadykhov

1.08 / 15m

TAKEDOWNS

0.00 / 15m

2.40 / 15m

ATTEMPTS

n/a

45%

ACCURACY

n/a

0.20 / 15m

SUB ATT

0.00 / 15m

Jefferson Nascimento

Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.50 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.

Ranked roster-wide

Stats comparison

Nazim Sadykhov (left) vs Jefferson Nascimento (right) — career striking & grappling rates.

Strikes landed / min

4.69

2.42

Striking accuracy

48%

Strikes absorbed / min

5.42

2.56

Striking defence

49%

57%

Takedowns / 15 min

1.08

Takedown accuracy

45%

Takedown defence

72%

66%

Sub attempts / 15 min

0.2

Career averages from public UFC statistics.

Bios

Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.

Nazim SadykhovFightIQ profilePower striker

5' 10" southpaw power striker campaigning at Lightweight. 4 UFC wins — 3 KO/TKO, 1 submission.

Built from Nazim Sadykhov’s own fight record and striking and grappling figures, recomputed for this build. Full profile →

Jefferson NascimentoFightIQ profileAll-rounder

5' 8" orthodox all-rounder campaigning at Welterweight.

Built from Jefferson Nascimento’s own fight record and striking and grappling figures, recomputed for this build. Full profile →

Go deeper

Nazim Sadykhov’s fighter page →Jefferson Nascimento’s fighter page →Every current pick →

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Nazim Sadykhov vs Jefferson Nascimento prediction