Round 1
43 of 91
Sig.
strikes
strikes
29 of 63
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
0:00
Control
0:08
0
Knock-
downs
downs
0
Distance 40Clinch 3Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 29Clinch 0Ground 0
Red corner
AndreFili“Touchy”Team Alpha Male · Born in Federal Way, Washington, United States · Fights out of Sacramento, California, United States
VSSettled
Blue corner
Kai KamakaIIIXtreme Couture · Born in Ewa Beach, Hawaii, United States · Fights out of Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
The story going in
- Has dropped 2 straight in the UFC.
- Is 22 points more accurate striking than Fili.
- Has finished 4 of 13 UFC wins.
26-14
Record
18-9-1
36
Age
−5 yr31
+4″5' 11"
Height
5' 7"
+5″74″
Reach
69″
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
+2127
UFC bouts
6
4/1331% of wins
Finishes
0/20% of wins
Team Alpha Male
Gym
Xtreme Couture
Federal Way, Washington, United States
Born in
Ewa Beach, Hawaii, United States
Sacramento, California, United States
Fights out of
Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.
The call vs the fight
What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Our call
Andre Fili
60.1% confidentMED
The fight
Andre Fili
WIN✗
Graded against the official UFC result, from
the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict
is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads
as one. See the full public record →
By the numbers
Age
Kamaka III is 4 years younger. With an age gap of 4 to 5 years, the younger fighter wins 56% of UFC fights (929 of 1,651 fights).
History leans Kamaka III on 1 of these; our model picked Fili.
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
2 rounds of tape
Round 2⚡ 1 KD FiliEnded 0:22
7 of 17
Sig.
strikes
strikes
4 of 11
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
0:02
Control
0:00
1
Knock-
downs
downs
0
Distance 7Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 4Clinch 0Ground 0
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
How it ended
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Won inside the distance
Andre Fili
Round
2
Clock
0:22
Method
KO/TKO
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Chris Tognoni.
Takedowns
Takedowns
The level change — head to head
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Andre Fili
2.24 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
1.45 / 15m
4.87 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
2.74 / 15m
46%
ACCURACY
53%
0.20 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.20 / 15m
71%
TD DEFENCE
55%
Kai Kamaka III
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (6.09 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Ranked in Featherweight
The market story
What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Andre FiliKai Kamaka IIIPolymarketSportsbook consensus (vig removed)
From the open the market drifted toward our pick: Andre Fili's implied chance moved up from 50% to 56% (+6.5pp).
Our published call had Andre Fili at 60.1%. At the last price we captured before the fight, the de-vigged market had the same fighter at 56.5% — our number sat 3.6pp above the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
Show the numbers
| Series | Open | Low | High | Last capture | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili — sportsbook consensus | 58.6% | 56.3% | 58.8% | 57.8% | −0.8pp |
| Kai Kamaka III — sportsbook consensus | 41.4% | 41.2% | 43.7% | 42.2% | +0.8pp |
| Andre Fili — Polymarket | 50.0% | 49.0% | 59.5% | 56.5% | +6.5pp |
| Kai Kamaka III — Polymarket | 50.0% | 40.5% | 51.0% | 43.5% | −6.5pp |
Price history from Polymarket (moneyline, both corners) and BestFightOdds (sportsbook consensus, vig removed). 1,163 snapshots on file · window Oct 02 22:11–Oct 10 23:51Z · last capture Oct 10, 23:51Z · hourly-downsampled for the chart · read at build time from the price archive, not a live feed.