Round 11 sub attempt
7 of 12
Sig.
strikes
strikes
27 of 37
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
1 of 1
0:00
Control
3:32
0
Sub
attempts
attempts
1
Distance 6Clinch 1Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 5Clinch 0Ground 22
Red corner
GeraldMeerschaert“GM3”Kill Cliff FC · Born in Racine, Wisconsin, United States · Fights out of Milwaukee, Wisconsin, United States
VSSettled
The story going in
- Has dropped 5 straight in the UFC.
- Has dropped 2 straight in the UFC.
- Every one of Meerschaert’s 12 UFC wins came inside the distance.
- Carries 60 points more takedown defence than Meerschaert.
37-23
Record
8-3
38
Age
−11 yr27
6' 1"
Height
+3″6' 4"
77″
Reach
+1″78″
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
+2226
UFC bouts
4
12/12100% of wins
Finishes
0/10% of wins
Kill Cliff FC
Gym
Team Fusion
Milwaukee, Wisconsin, United Statesfights out of
From
Springfield, Missourihometown, per Sherdog
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.
The call vs the fight
What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Our call
Julius Walker
80.8% confidentLOCK
The fight
Julius Walker
WIN✓
Graded against the official UFC result, from
the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict
is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads
as one. See the full public record →
By the numbers
Age
Walker is 11 years younger. With an age gap of 10 years or more, the younger fighter wins 70% of UFC fights (352 of 506 fights).
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
2 rounds of tape
Round 2Ended 3:35
2 of 2
Sig.
strikes
strikes
11 of 13
0 of 1
Take-
downs
downs
2 of 2
0:03
Control
3:13
0
Sub
attempts
attempts
0
Distance 1Clinch 1Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 0Clinch 0Ground 11
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
How it ended
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Won inside the distance
Julius Walker
Round
2
Clock
3:35
Method
KO/TKO
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Herb Dean.
Takedowns
Takedowns
The level change — head to head
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Gerald Meerschaert
1.70 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
4.07 / 15m
5.86 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
10.71 / 15m
29%
ACCURACY
38%
1.50 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.00 / 15m
40%
TD DEFENCE
100%
Julius Walker
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.50 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Ranked roster-wide
The market story
What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Gerald MeerschaertJulius WalkerPolymarketSportsbook consensus (vig removed)
From the open the market drifted toward our pick: Julius Walker's implied chance moved up from 50% to 76% (+25.5pp).
Our published call had Julius Walker at 80.8%. At the last price we captured before the fight, the de-vigged market had the same fighter at 75.5% — our number sat 5.3pp above the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
Show the numbers
| Series | Open | Low | High | Last capture | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerald Meerschaert — sportsbook consensus | 31.5% | 27.4% | 31.5% | 27.4% | −4.0pp |
| Julius Walker — sportsbook consensus | 68.5% | 68.5% | 72.6% | 72.6% | +4.0pp |
| Gerald Meerschaert — Polymarket | 50.0% | 24.5% | 50.0% | 24.5% | −25.5pp |
| Julius Walker — Polymarket | 50.0% | 50.0% | 75.5% | 75.5% | +25.5pp |
Price history from Polymarket (moneyline, both corners) and BestFightOdds (sportsbook consensus, vig removed). 1,162 snapshots on file · window Oct 02 22:11–Oct 10 23:41Z · last capture Oct 10, 23:41Z · hourly-downsampled for the chart · read at build time from the price archive, not a live feed.