What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Both fighters go the distance: at least two thirds of their UFC wins came on the scorecards. When two decision winners meet, 31% of UFC fights end inside the distance (73 of 236 fights). Across every UFC fight it is 53%.
Vettori comes in on 4 straight UFC losses; Naurdiev comes in off a win. A fighter in that spot wins 40% of the time (45 of 112 fights).
Naurdiev is 2 years younger. With an age gap of 2 to 3 years, the younger fighter wins 57% of UFC fights (1,250 of 2,206 fights).
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them, and how the three judges scored that round.
3 rounds of tape
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
The judges’ final totals, the media’s cards beside them, and how these judges usually score. Their round-by-round 10–9s are with the rounds above.
Unanimous Decision
| Judge | Total |
|---|---|
| Derek Cleary2.0 avg spread · 42% wide | 28–29 |
| Steve Faragher | 28–29 |
| Dan Furse | 28–29 |
Each judge’s round-by-round scores sit with the round they belong to, in the round-by-round section above — switch a round there and the three cards for it change with the stats.
Media cards — 10 scored, Marvin Vettori first · unofficial
Fan vote · unofficial
59 fan cards submitted to MMA Decisions.
Official cards come from the UFCStats fight record and MMA Decisions. Media cards and the fan vote are MMA Decisions’ own collection and are not official. Judge tendency figures are that judge’s whole recorded history, not this bout — they are context for how a card was scored, never a claim that it was scored wrongly.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Marvin Vettori
Ismail Naurdiev
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (6.86 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
From the open the market drifted away from our pick: Ismail Naurdiev's implied chance moved down from 56% to 55% (−1.0pp).
This series stops at Oct 03 20:31Z — the point at which this bout’s own market began the move that ended in settlement. Our capture window is card-level and kept running through the fight, so what follows it in the raw file is the market collapsing live and then paying out at 1.00 / 0.00. That is a settlement, not price history: it is not drawn, and it is not counted in the figures below.
Our published call had Ismail Naurdiev at 64.2%. At the last price we captured before this bout’s market began to settle, the de-vigged market had the same fighter at 54.5% — our number sat 9.7pp above the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
| Series | Open | Low | High | Last pre-fight | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Vettori — sportsbook consensus | 44.6% | 43.6% | 45.5% | 44.8% | +0.2pp |
| Ismail Naurdiev — sportsbook consensus | 55.4% | 54.5% | 56.4% | 55.2% | −0.2pp |
| Marvin Vettori — Polymarket | 44.5% | 42.5% | 47.0% | 45.5% | +1.0pp |
| Ismail Naurdiev — Polymarket | 55.5% | 53.0% | 57.5% | 54.5% | −1.0pp |