Round 1⚡ 1 KD KopylovEnded 3:12
7 of 30
Sig.
strikes
strikes
19 of 23
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
0:00
Control
0:05
0
Knock-
downs
downs
1
Distance 7Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 12Clinch 0Ground 7
VSSettled
Blue corner
RomanKopylovRaty Team · Born in Schebzavod, Belovsky District, Kemerovo Oblast, Russian SFSR, Soviet Union · Fights out of Bachatsky, Russia
The story going in
- Comes in on a 5-fight win streak.
- Has finished 5 of 7 UFC wins.
- Has finished 4 of 5 UFC wins.
- 12 UFC bouts deep — 7 more than Gautier.
11-2
Record
16-5
−10 yr24
Age
34
+4″6' 4"
Height
6' 0"
+6″81″
Reach
75″
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
5
UFC bouts
+712
+9%4/580% of wins
Finishes
5/771% of wins
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.
The call vs the fight
What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Our call
Ateba Gautier
78.6% confidentHIGH
The fight
Roman Kopylov
LOSS✓
Graded against the official UFC result, from
the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict
is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads
as one. See the full public record →
By the numbers
Age
Gautier is 9 years younger. With an age gap of 8 to 9 years, the younger fighter wins 65% of UFC fights (411 of 631 fights).
Finishers
Both fighters finish: at least two thirds of their UFC wins ended inside the distance. When two finishers meet, 64% of UFC fights end inside the distance (353 of 549 fights). Across every UFC fight it is 53%.
Win streaks
Gautier comes in on a 5-fight UFC winning run. A fighter on a run of 4 or 5 against an opponent on a shorter one wins 58% of the time (367 of 636 fights).
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
1 round of tape
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
How it ended
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Won inside the distance
Roman Kopylov
Round
1
Clock
3:12
Method
KO/TKO
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Marc Goddard.
Takedowns
Takedowns
The level change — head to head
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Ateba Gautier
0.38 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
1.10 / 15m
0.38 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
2.20 / 15m
100%
ACCURACY
50%
0.00 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.00 / 15m
93%
TD DEFENCE
88%
Roman Kopylov
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (6.86 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Ranked in Middleweight
The market story
What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Ateba GautierRoman KopylovPolymarketSportsbook consensus (vig removed)
From the open the market drifted toward our pick: Ateba Gautier's implied chance moved up from 64% to 68% (+4.5pp).
Our published call had Ateba Gautier at 78.6%. At the last price we captured before the fight, the de-vigged market had the same fighter at 68.5% — our number sat 10.1pp above the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
Show the numbers
| Series | Open | Low | High | Last capture | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ateba Gautier — sportsbook consensus | 62.8% | 62.8% | 68.2% | 67.4% | +4.5pp |
| Roman Kopylov — sportsbook consensus | 37.2% | 31.8% | 37.2% | 32.6% | −4.5pp |
| Ateba Gautier — Polymarket | 64.0% | 62.0% | 68.5% | 68.5% | +4.5pp |
| Roman Kopylov — Polymarket | 36.0% | 31.5% | 38.0% | 31.5% | −4.5pp |
Price history from Polymarket (moneyline, both corners) and BestFightOdds (sportsbook consensus, vig removed). 1,184 snapshots on file · window Sep 25 17:11–Oct 03 23:51Z · last capture Oct 03, 23:51Z · hourly-downsampled for the chart · read at build time from the price archive, not a live feed.