Round 1
25 of 50
Sig.
strikes
strikes
22 of 52
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
0:00
Control
0:00
0
Knock-
downs
downs
0
Distance 25Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 22Clinch 0Ground 0
Red corner
Rafael DosAnjosBorn in Niterói, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil · Fights out of Huntington Beach, California, United States
VSSettled
Blue corner
AlexanderHernandez“The Great Ape”Factory X · Born in St. Louis, Missouri, United States · Fights out of Denver, Colorado, United States
The story going in
- Has dropped 3 straight in the UFC.
- Has finished 5 of 10 UFC wins.
- Has finished 9 of 21 UFC wins.
- Carries 14 points more takedown defence than Anjos.
32-18
Record
19-9
41
Age
−7 yr34
5' 8"
Height
+1″5' 9"
70″
Reach
+2″72″
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
+1836
UFC bouts
18
9/2143% of wins
Finishes
+7%5/1050% of wins
Niterói, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Born in
St. Louis, Missouri, United States
Huntington Beach, California, United States
Fights out of
Denver, Colorado, United States
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.
The call vs the fight
What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Our call
Alexander Hernandez
76.1% confidentHIGH
The fight
Alexander Hernandez
WIN✗
Graded against the official UFC result, from
the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict
is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads
as one. See the full public record →
By the numbers
Age
Hernandez is 7 years younger. With an age gap of 6 to 7 years, the younger fighter wins 60% of UFC fights (635 of 1,055 fights).
Time away
Dos Anjos’s first UFC fight in 23 months. A fighter coming back after 1 to 2 years away, against an opponent active within the year, wins 41% of the time (377 of 926 fights).
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
2 rounds of tape
Round 2⚡ 2 KD HernandezEnded 3:12
1 of 9
Sig.
strikes
strikes
14 of 34
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
0:00
Control
2:44
0
Knock-
downs
downs
2
Distance 0Clinch 0Ground 1
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 3Clinch 0Ground 11
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
How it ended
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Won inside the distance
Alexander Hernandez
Round
2
Clock
3:12
Method
KO/TKO
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Mike Beltran.
Takedowns
Takedowns
The level change — head to head
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Rafael Dos Anjos
1.92 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
1.00 / 15m
5.49 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
2.86 / 15m
35%
ACCURACY
35%
0.60 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.10 / 15m
54%
TD DEFENCE
68%
Alexander Hernandez
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.19 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Ranked in Lightweight
The market story
What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Rafael Dos AnjosAlexander HernandezPolymarketSportsbook consensus (vig removed)
From the open the market drifted toward our pick: Alexander Hernandez's implied chance moved up from 70% to 70% (+0.5pp).
This series stops at Oct 03 21:01Z — the point at which this bout’s own market began the move that ended in settlement. Our capture window is card-level and kept running through the fight, so what follows it in the raw file is the market collapsing live and then paying out at 1.00 / 0.00. That is a settlement, not price history: it is not drawn, and it is not counted in the figures below.
Our published call had Alexander Hernandez at 76.1%. At the last price we captured before this bout’s market began to settle, the de-vigged market had the same fighter at 70.5% — our number sat 5.6pp above the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
Show the numbers
| Series | Open | Low | High | Last pre-fight | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Dos Anjos — sportsbook consensus | 31.5% | 29.1% | 31.5% | 30.2% | −1.3pp |
| Alexander Hernandez — sportsbook consensus | 68.5% | 68.5% | 70.9% | 69.8% | +1.3pp |
| Rafael Dos Anjos — Polymarket | 30.0% | 27.5% | 32.0% | 29.5% | −0.5pp |
| Alexander Hernandez — Polymarket | 70.0% | 68.0% | 72.5% | 70.5% | +0.5pp |
Price history from Polymarket (moneyline, both corners) and BestFightOdds (sportsbook consensus, vig removed). 1,169 snapshots on file · window Sep 25 17:11–Oct 03 20:51Z · last capture Oct 03, 20:51Z · hourly-downsampled for the chart · read at build time from the price archive, not a live feed.