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FightIQ · The Lab · Correlations

Which fighter stats go with winning in the UFC?

Striking accuracy and strikes absorbed per minute have the strongest links to a fighter's UFC win rate (r = 0.28 and −0.26); submission attempts per 15 minutes have almost none (r = 0.01).

1,260 fighters with 5+ UFC fights · career numbers from the official UFC register · results to 10 October 2026

How to read these

Each chart splits fighters into six equal groups, from the lowest value of one stat to the highest, and plots how often each group won in the UFC. r runs from −1 to 1: 0 means no straight-line link at all, and anything under about 0.3 either way is a tendency, not a rule. The range after r is its 95% interval.

Striking accuracy

r = 0.28 (95%: 0.23 to 0.33) · 1,250 fighters
Striking accuracy against UFC win rate6 groups of equal size from lowest to highest striking accuracy; each dot is that group's UFC win rate with a 95% range. The table under the charts carries every value.40%45%50%55%60%65%70%20% to 38%: 48.9% of 2,072 fights34%38% to 42%: 52.8% of 2,437 fights40%42% to 45%: 52.9% of 2,450 fights44%45% to 48%: 55.0% of 2,480 fights47%48% to 52%: 59.7% of 2,402 fights50%52% to 83%: 63.1% of 2,125 fights56%% of significant strikes that land (group average)

One of the clearer links: fighters with higher striking accuracy tend to have the better UFC record.

Strikes absorbed per minute

r = −0.26 (95%: −0.31 to −0.21) · 1,250 fighters
Strikes absorbed per minute against UFC win rate6 groups of equal size from lowest to highest strikes absorbed per minute; each dot is that group's UFC win rate with a 95% range. The table under the charts carries every value.40%45%50%55%60%65%70%0.5 to 2.3: 62.6% of 2,142 fights1.92.3 to 2.9: 58.6% of 2,389 fights2.62.9 to 3.3: 54.2% of 2,417 fights3.13.3 to 3.8: 55.1% of 2,506 fights3.63.8 to 4.5: 53.2% of 2,361 fights4.14.5 to 8.4: 48.7% of 2,151 fights5.4significant strikes taken per minute (group average)

One of the clearer links: fighters with lower strikes absorbed per minute tend to have the better UFC record.

Takedown defence

r = 0.25 (95%: 0.20 to 0.30) · 1,250 fighters
Takedown defence against UFC win rate6 groups of equal size from lowest to highest takedown defence; each dot is that group's UFC win rate with a 95% range. The table under the charts carries every value.40%45%50%55%60%65%70%0% to 44%: 48.1% of 1,891 fights31%44% to 55%: 53.1% of 2,241 fights50%55% to 63%: 56.0% of 2,640 fights59%63% to 70%: 54.8% of 2,514 fights66%70% to 78%: 56.8% of 2,458 fights74%78% to 100%: 62.3% of 2,222 fights86%% of takedown attempts stopped (group average)

A modest link: fighters with higher takedown defence tend to have the better UFC record.

Takedowns per 15 minutes

r = 0.22 (95%: 0.16 to 0.27) · 1,250 fighters
Takedowns per 15 minutes against UFC win rate6 groups of equal size from lowest to highest takedowns per 15 minutes; each dot is that group's UFC win rate with a 95% range. The table under the charts carries every value.45%50%55%60%65%70%0.0 to 0.4: 52.2% of 2,078 fights0.20.4 to 0.8: 53.6% of 2,421 fights0.60.8 to 1.2: 53.5% of 2,356 fights1.01.2 to 1.8: 54.6% of 2,394 fights1.51.8 to 2.7: 56.2% of 2,413 fights2.22.7 to 8.2: 62.1% of 2,304 fights3.7takedowns landed per 15 minutes (group average)

A modest link: fighters with higher takedowns per 15 minutes tend to have the better UFC record.

Submission attempts per 15 minutes

r = 0.01 (95%: −0.05 to 0.06) · 1,250 fighters
Submission attempts per 15 minutes against UFC win rate6 groups of equal size from lowest to highest submission attempts per 15 minutes; each dot is that group's UFC win rate with a 95% range. The table under the charts carries every value.45%50%55%60%65%0.0 to 0.0: 51.3% of 1,993 fights0.00.0 to 0.2: 55.1% of 2,512 fights0.10.2 to 0.4: 57.4% of 2,383 fights0.30.4 to 0.7: 55.4% of 2,424 fights0.60.7 to 1.1: 57.5% of 2,425 fights0.91.1 to 7.4: 54.9% of 2,229 fights1.8attempts per 15 minutes (group average)

Almost no link: this stat says little about who wins.

Age at UFC debut

r = −0.15 (95%: −0.20 to −0.10) · 1,258 fighters
Age at UFC debut against UFC win rate6 groups of equal size from lowest to highest age at ufc debut; each dot is that group's UFC win rate with a 95% range. The table under the charts carries every value.45%50%55%60%65%18 to 24: 58.9% of 2,804 fights2324 to 26: 57.7% of 2,645 fights2526 to 27: 55.3% of 2,309 fights2727 to 29: 53.4% of 2,207 fights2829 to 31: 54.1% of 2,128 fights3031 to 38: 51.2% of 1,931 fights33years old at the first UFC fight (group average)

A weak link: fighters with lower age at UFC debut tend to have the better UFC record.

Reach

r = 0.07 (95%: 0.02 to 0.13) · 1,225 fighters
Reach against UFC win rate6 groups of equal size from lowest to highest reach; each dot is that group's UFC win rate with a 95% range. The table under the charts carries every value.45%50%55%60%65%58 to 68: 55.0% of 2,196 fights6568 to 70: 54.1% of 2,187 fights6970 to 72: 53.7% of 2,197 fights7172 to 74: 56.3% of 2,284 fights7374 to 76: 55.1% of 2,429 fights7576 to 84: 57.8% of 2,482 fights78inches (group average)

A weak link: fighters with higher reach tend to have the better UFC record.

Age on fight night vs being knocked out

r = 0.10 (95%: 0.09 to 0.12) · 17,346 fighter-fights
Age on fight night vs being knocked out against knocked out6 groups of equal size from lowest to highest age on fight night vs being knocked out; each dot is that group's knocked out with a 95% range. The table under the charts carries every value.5%10%15%20%25%30%18 to 26: 12.5% of 2,891 fights2526 to 29: 12.9% of 2,891 fights2729 to 30: 15.9% of 2,891 fights2930 to 32: 16.3% of 2,891 fights3132 to 35: 19.2% of 2,891 fights3335 to 52: 23.0% of 2,891 fights37years old on fight night (group average)

Older fighters are knocked out more often: a weak link across every fight a fighter had, not a career average.

What this means

The career striking and grappling numbers are measured in the same fights they are being compared with, so a fighter who wins a lot will tend to have good numbers partly because they won. Read them as a description of what winners look like, not as a recipe.

Correlation is not causation. A link here says two things move together across fighters; it does not say that changing one would change the other.

The numbers

Striking accuracy

Group (% of significant strikes that land)FightersFightsWin rate95% range
20% to 38%2082,07248.9%46.7 to 51.0%
38% to 42%2082,43752.8%50.8 to 54.8%
42% to 45%2092,45052.9%50.9 to 54.9%
45% to 48%2082,48055.0%53.0 to 56.9%
48% to 52%2082,40259.7%57.8 to 61.7%
52% to 83%2092,12563.1%61.0 to 65.1%

Strikes absorbed per minute

Group (significant strikes taken per minute)FightersFightsWin rate95% range
0.5 to 2.32082,14262.6%60.5 to 64.6%
2.3 to 2.92082,38958.6%56.7 to 60.6%
2.9 to 3.32092,41754.2%52.2 to 56.1%
3.3 to 3.82082,50655.1%53.2 to 57.1%
3.8 to 4.52082,36153.2%51.2 to 55.2%
4.5 to 8.42092,15148.7%46.6 to 50.8%

Takedown defence

Group (% of takedown attempts stopped)FightersFightsWin rate95% range
0% to 44%2081,89148.1%45.8 to 50.3%
44% to 55%2082,24153.1%51.0 to 55.2%
55% to 63%2092,64056.0%54.1 to 57.9%
63% to 70%2082,51454.8%52.9 to 56.7%
70% to 78%2082,45856.8%54.8 to 58.7%
78% to 100%2092,22262.3%60.3 to 64.3%

Takedowns per 15 minutes

Group (takedowns landed per 15 minutes)FightersFightsWin rate95% range
0.0 to 0.42082,07852.2%50.1 to 54.4%
0.4 to 0.82082,42153.6%51.6 to 55.6%
0.8 to 1.22092,35653.5%51.5 to 55.5%
1.2 to 1.82082,39454.6%52.6 to 56.6%
1.8 to 2.72082,41356.2%54.2 to 58.2%
2.7 to 8.22092,30462.1%60.1 to 64.1%

Submission attempts per 15 minutes

Group (attempts per 15 minutes)FightersFightsWin rate95% range
0.0 to 0.02081,99351.3%49.1 to 53.5%
0.0 to 0.22082,51255.1%53.2 to 57.1%
0.2 to 0.42092,38357.4%55.5 to 59.4%
0.4 to 0.72082,42455.4%53.4 to 57.3%
0.7 to 1.12082,42557.5%55.5 to 59.4%
1.1 to 7.42092,22954.9%52.8 to 57.0%

Age at UFC debut

Group (years old at the first UFC fight)FightersFightsWin rate95% range
18 to 242092,80458.9%57.0 to 60.7%
24 to 262102,64557.7%55.8 to 59.6%
26 to 272102,30955.3%53.3 to 57.3%
27 to 292092,20753.4%51.3 to 55.4%
29 to 312102,12854.1%52.0 to 56.2%
31 to 382101,93151.2%49.0 to 53.4%

Reach

Group (inches)FightersFightsWin rate95% range
58 to 682042,19655.0%52.9 to 57.1%
68 to 702042,18754.1%52.0 to 56.2%
70 to 722042,19753.7%51.6 to 55.8%
72 to 742042,28456.3%54.2 to 58.3%
74 to 762042,42955.1%53.1 to 57.1%
76 to 842052,48257.8%55.8 to 59.7%

Age on fight night vs being knocked out

Group (years old on fight night)Fighter-fightsFightsKnocked out95% range
18 to 262,8912,89112.5%11.3 to 13.7%
26 to 292,8912,89112.9%11.7 to 14.2%
29 to 302,8912,89115.9%14.6 to 17.3%
30 to 322,8912,89116.3%15.0 to 17.6%
32 to 352,8912,89119.2%17.8 to 20.7%
35 to 522,8912,89123.0%21.5 to 24.5%

How we counted

Fighters with at least 5 UFC fights that had a winner, on the official UFC statistical record to 10 October 2026. A fighter's win rate is their UFC wins divided by those fights. The career rates (strikes, takedowns, submission attempts) and the physical measurements come from the official UFC register, one value per fighter; a fighter with no recorded UFC minutes has no rates and is left out of those charts, and names the register holds for two different fighters are left out of all of them. Age on fight night uses every fight with a winner, both corners, and asks whether that fighter was knocked out. Each group is one sixth of the fighters, so no group is smaller than 30.