The full card, graded
The breakdown
Manuel Torres is 5-1 in the UFC, and every one of his last five appearances ended in the first round, four of them in his favor. Rafael Fiziev is 7-5 through 12 UFC fights and has gone 1-4 across his last five, one of those losses by knockout and one a stoppage when he hurt his knee, with a gap of nearly 18 months in the middle of that run. The two share an opponent: Ignacio Bahamondes knocked Torres out in the first round in 2024 and lost a decision to Fiziev in June 2025. The model has a modest lean to Torres in a five-round headliner.
This is close to even, and the reason sits in how quickly Torres' fights resolve. His path is the one he has taken in every recent outing, landing something decisive before the fight settles into a rhythm. Fiziev's path is the opposite, dragging Torres past the opening five minutes, which none of Torres' six UFC fights has reached, and that is also where Fiziev's decision win over Bahamondes came from. The model picks a knockout as the likeliest ending even with five rounds available, a sign it is weighting the pace of Torres' recent fights over the extra time.
- Torres' first-round habit against Fiziev's comfort at the distance
- Fiziev is 1-4 in his last five with one knockout loss, one injury stoppage and a long layoff inside that run
- Fiziev's path is surviving the opening round and making it a long night
- Lightweight scheduled for five rounds, a distance Torres has never needed in the UFC
- A modest lean to Torres, one of the closer calls on the card
The breakdown
Michel Pereira has 15 UFC fights and a 10-5 record, but he is 2-3 across his last five, with knockout losses to Anthony Hernandez in the fifth round and Kyle Daukaus in the first. His most recent win was a split decision over Zach Reese in February. Shara Magomedov is 5-1 through six UFC appearances, his only loss a decision to Michael Page, and he has not fought since July 2025. The model favors Magomedov and expects the scorecards.
The read here is trajectory. Magomedov's record shows one blemish in six, while Pereira's shows three losses in his last five and two of them by stoppage. Pereira's path runs through the finish, and he has one on file, a first-round submission of Ihor Potieria. Magomedov's path is the one his recent wins describe, banking rounds and taking the decision, though the model is leaning hard on a fighter who has been out of the cage for 11 months.
- Magomedov's decision-heavy recent work against Pereira's need for something early
- An 11-month layoff for Magomedov is the caveat sitting under the number
- Pereira's path is the finish, before the rounds start stacking against him
- Middleweight over three rounds, and the model calls the scorecards
- A clear lean to Magomedov without being the firmest read on the card
The breakdown
Matheus Camilo has two UFC fights, a second-round submission loss to Gabe Green and a unanimous decision over Viacheslav Borshchev in November. Nazim Sadykhov is 4-1 through six UFC appearances and was knocked out in the second round by Fares Ziam in December. Both men have shared a cage with Borshchev, and the results differ: Camilo won a decision, Sadykhov's went to a majority draw. The model splits this one almost exactly down the middle.
At 51.3% this is the model's least confident read of the five, and there is not much record on either side to work from. Camilo's path is the one that produced his win over Borshchev, three rounds of steady work with nobody able to end it. Sadykhov's is faster, the kind of finish he found against Terrance McKinney, Ismael Bonfim and Nikolas Motta, four of his last five fights having ended inside the distance. The model still calls the decision, leaning on the single UFC win Camilo has and on how little else is on file.
- Sadykhov's finishing rate against Camilo's one full-distance UFC win
- Sadykhov comes in off a second-round knockout loss in December
- Sadykhov's path is ending it early, as four of his last five UFC fights did
- Lightweight over three rounds with a two-fight UFC record on one side
- The tightest call on the card and the model's least confident pick
The breakdown
Asu Almabayev is 6-1 through seven UFC fights, with three unanimous decisions and a third-round submission of Alex Perez among his last five, and one loss, a third-round knockout by Manel Kape. Charles Johnson has 14 UFC fights and an 8-6 record, and he has fought three times since August. Perez is the common thread: Almabayev submitted him in November, and Perez knocked Johnson out in the first round in January. The model likes Almabayev and expects the cards.
That common opponent is the cleanest piece of evidence on the card, and it points one way. Almabayev's read is built on the decisions, three of them in his last five, plus the grappling that finished Perez in the third. Johnson's path is the one that produced his knockout of Lone'er Kavanagh, catching Almabayev the way Kape did. Johnson's activity is the argument against the model's number, three fights in 10 months against a seven-month gap for Almabayev since November.
- Almabayev's decision-and-grappling pattern against Johnson's power
- Johnson has fought three times since August; Almabayev last fought in November
- Johnson's path is the knockout, which he has one of in his last five
- Flyweight over three rounds, and the model calls the scorecards
- A firm lean to Almabayev, the second-strongest number on the card
The breakdown
Ikram Aliskerov is 4-1 in the UFC and four of those five fights ended in the first round, three of them knockouts by him and one by Robert Whittaker. His most recent was the exception, a unanimous decision over JunYong Park in October. Brunno Ferreira is 6-3 across nine UFC fights, with two submission wins among his last five, a submission loss to Abus Magomedov in that run, and a first-round knockout loss to Gregory Rodrigues in March. The model's strongest read of the card is Aliskerov, by knockout.
Nothing in either record suggests a long fight. Aliskerov's path is the first round, where he has ended three UFC fights and lost one. Ferreira's is the ground, where he submitted Armen Petrosyan and Jackson McVey, and his decision win over Marvin Vettori shows he can hold a fight together for 15 minutes when he has to. The model is weighting Aliskerov heavily while picking the method that has already beaten him, so the confidence and the risk sit in the same place.
- Aliskerov's early knockouts against Ferreira's submission work
- Both men were stopped in the first round in their most recent losses
- Ferreira's path is dragging it to the mat and finding a finish there
- Middleweight over three rounds, and four of Aliskerov's five UFC fights never reached the second
- The model's firmest number on the card, with an obvious way it goes wrong
The breakdown
Abus Magomedov is 4-3 in the UFC across seven fights, with three wins since May 2024 and a second-round submission loss to Joe Pyfer last October as his most recent outing. Michal Oleksiejczuk is the more experienced hand at 10-7 over 18 appearances, and he arrives on three straight wins that included first-round knockouts of Sedriques Dumas and Gerald Meerschaert. Two of Magomedov's recent wins came on the cards. The model splits this almost down the middle and lands on Magomedov at 52.2%.
This one is close to even, and both records explain why. Oleksiejczuk's route is the one he took twice in 2025, landing heavy and ending it inside a round. Magomedov's route is the one his 2024 and 2025 wins describe, getting through the opening exchanges and taking the later rounds to the judges. The tell is that the model still sits a fraction on Magomedov's side while Oleksiejczuk holds the better recent results, which points to it weighing how each man has lost more than how Oleksiejczuk has been winning.
- A first-round finisher against a fighter who has been winning on the cards
- Oleksiejczuk carries the better recent form with three straight wins
- Oleksiejczuk's path is a stoppage early, as he managed twice in 2025
- Middleweight three-rounder, and the model's method lean is a decision
- Close to even, one of the tightest reads on the card
The breakdown
Eric Nolan has one UFC fight on his record, a second-round submission loss to Baisangur Susurkaev last August at middleweight. Farman Hasanov makes his UFC debut. The model still lands on Hasanov at 75.8%, a strong number with no UFC bout behind it for him.
Hasanov is not a flagged pick, and the size of the number deserves more scepticism than it invites, because it is a projection rather than a judgment on anything the promotion has seen. Hasanov's path is whatever he brought in with him, and the model's method lean is a knockout. Nolan's path is the reverse of his one octagon night, staying out of trouble on the mat and pushing the fight into the third. On evidence, there is very little holding this one up.
- Hasanov makes his UFC debut, nothing observed to measure him against
- Nolan's only octagon appearance ended by submission in the second
- Nolan's path is grappling defense and a fight that reaches the third round
- Three rounds, and the model's method lean is a knockout
- A big number on thin evidence, treat it carefully
The breakdown
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev is 2-0 in the UFC and neither fight left the first round, both ending by submission. Julius Walker is 1-2 over three appearances, with a split-decision loss to Alonzo Menifield, a decision win over Rafael Cerqueira and a second-round knockout loss to Dustin Jacoby in February. Both men have shared Cerqueira: Walker needed the full 15 minutes, Yakhyaev needed a single round. The model has Yakhyaev HIGH at 72.4%.
HIGH tier here rests on a two-fight octagon sample, which is worth flagging even though what is in that sample is emphatic. Yakhyaev's path is the one he has already walked twice, closing the distance and finishing before the horn. Walker's path is surviving the opening five minutes and getting the fight to the judges, which is where his only UFC win came from. The odd note is that the model's method lean is a knockout rather than the submission route Yakhyaev has actually used both times.
- Yakhyaev's first-round finishing against Walker's willingness to go long
- Cerqueira as a common opponent, with the round counts far apart
- Walker's path is getting out of round one and into the judges' hands
- Light heavyweight three-rounder, with the finish risk front-loaded
- HIGH tier, but built on only two octagon fights
The breakdown
Andrey Pulyaev is 1-2 in the UFC, both losses by unanimous decision and his win a second-round knockout of Nick Klein. Nursulton Ruziboev is 4-1 across five appearances, three of the wins by knockout and none of those past the second round, with his only loss a decision to Joaquin Buckley at welterweight. Ruziboev has not fought since May 2025, a gap of about 13 months. The model leans to Ruziboev at 68.9%.
The lean is clear without being emphatic, and it is built on finishing ability. Ruziboev's path is the short one his record keeps describing, landing heavy inside two rounds as he has three times in the UFC. Pulyaev's path runs the other way, dragging it out to the full 15 minutes, which he has managed twice, both times on the wrong side of the cards. The layoff is the one thing the record cannot settle either way.
- Ruziboev's knockout habit against Pulyaev's decision-length fights
- About 13 months out of the octagon for Ruziboev since May 2025
- Pulyaev's path is banking rounds and taking it to the judges
- Middleweight three-rounder, and the model's method lean is a knockout
- A clear lean rather than an emphatic one
The breakdown
Javier Reyes has one UFC fight, a first-round knockout of Douglas Silva de Andrade in February. Kaan Ofli is 2-2 across four appearances and has won his last two, a first-round submission of Ricardo Ramos and a majority decision over Yizha in January. Ofli's losses came by knockout to Mairon Santos and on the cards to Muhammad Naimov. The model has Reyes HIGH at 61.4%.
The thing to weigh is that HIGH sits on a fighter with a single octagon appearance while Ofli has four and the recent momentum of the two. Reyes' path is the only one he has shown at this level, finding the finish early. Ofli's path is what his last two wins describe, either an opening submission or a close fight in which he takes the majority of the rounds. The model's method lean is a decision, which sits oddly against Reyes' one UFC result and hints that it reads him as durable rather than explosive.
- Reyes' single early finish against Ofli's four fights of octagon mileage
- Ofli holds the recent form with two straight wins
- Ofli's path is a long fight and rounds banked on the scorecards
- Featherweight three-rounder, and the model's method lean is a decision
- HIGH tier, drawn from a one-fight octagon sample
The breakdown
Daniil Donchenko is 2-0 in the UFC, with a first-round KO in the Ultimate Fighter 33 welterweight tournament final and a decision win over Alex Morono in February. Theodor Berggren makes his UFC debut. The model has Donchenko HIGH, and that read rests on the one fighter with a UFC record.
The HIGH label here rests on one-sided information rather than a proven mismatch, and it deserves more scepticism than the word carries. Donchenko's path is the one his record has already shown twice, a finish inside a round or a decision he controls over 15 minutes. Berggren's path is a debut in which whatever he did outside the UFC has to carry over immediately. The model's method read is KO/TKO, which tracks with how Donchenko's first win ended.
- A two-fight UFC record against an opponent making his UFC debut
- Donchenko active as recently as February; Berggren untested at this level
- Berggren's path is that his form outside the UFC travels immediately
- Three-round bout, with the method read leaning to a finish rather than the cards
- HIGH tier, but one side has no UFC bout to measure; treat it more carefully than the label suggests
The breakdown
Bekzat Almakhan is 1-2 in the UFC, with a first-round knockout of Brad Katona sandwiched between decision losses to Umar Nurmagomedov and Aleksandre Topuria, and he has not fought since November. Jean Matsumoto is 3-2 across five UFC bantamweight fights, and his last three all went to split decisions, two of them against him. Both men have beaten Katona. The model leans to Matsumoto without much conviction.
Matsumoto's edge in the read is UFC rounds banked, and little else separates them. Almakhan's path is the one he showed against Katona, landing something clean early, because his two losses both ran the full three rounds and both went against him. Matsumoto's path is the one he has walked four times now, taking a close fight to the cards and living with the result. The model's most likely method is a decision, and with three of Matsumoto's last three decided by a single judge, that is the honest expectation.
- Almakhan's early finishing evidence against Matsumoto's decision-heavy UFC record
- Almakhan idle since November; Matsumoto fought in February
- Almakhan's path is landing clean early, the way the Katona fight ended
- Bantamweight three-rounder, most likely settled on the scorecards
- A modest lean to Matsumoto, close enough that another split could go either way
The breakdown
Both Jefferson Nascimento and Tahir Abdullayev make their UFC debuts, so there is no octagon form on either man to weigh. The model leans to Abdullayev at 69.3% with KO/TKO the likeliest method.
With no UFC fights on either side, the read should be treated as thin. Abdullayev's path is the one the method read implies, ending it before inexperience at this level becomes the story. Nascimento's path is the mirror image. Fights where both men are unmeasured in the octagon are where the model has the least to work with, and this is one of them.
- Two UFC debutants, so the matchup read has no octagon evidence behind it
- Neither man measured at this level, which leaves trajectory and activity out of the picture
- Nascimento's path is simply that his form travels as well as Abdullayev's
- Three-round bout, with KO/TKO the likeliest method
- A read on no UFC form, and it should be taken that way