Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev is 2-0 in the UFC and neither fight left the first round, both ending by submission. Julius Walker is 1-2 over three appearances, with a split-decision loss to Alonzo Menifield, a decision win over Rafael Cerqueira and a second-round knockout loss to Dustin Jacoby in February. Both men have shared Cerqueira: Walker needed the full 15 minutes, Yakhyaev needed a single round. The model has Yakhyaev HIGH at 72.4%.
The read
HIGH tier here rests on a two-fight octagon sample, which is worth flagging even though what is in that sample is emphatic. Yakhyaev's path is the one he has already walked twice, closing the distance and finishing before the horn. Walker's path is surviving the opening five minutes and getting the fight to the judges, which is where his only UFC win came from. The odd note is that the model's method lean is a knockout rather than the submission route Yakhyaev has actually used both times.
What decides it
- Yakhyaev's first-round finishing against Walker's willingness to go long
- Cerqueira as a common opponent, with the round counts far apart
- Walker's path is getting out of round one and into the judges' hands
- Light heavyweight three-rounder, with the finish risk front-loaded
- HIGH tier, but built on only two octagon fights