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Sergei Pavlovich vs Alex Pereira prediction
Heavyweight · Oliveira vs Lopes · 12 Dec 2026
Both fighters finish: at least two thirds of their UFC wins ended inside the distance. When two finishers meet, 64% of UFC fights end inside the distance (354 of 550 fights). Across every UFC fight it is 53%.
Pavlovich comes in on a 3-fight UFC winning run. A fighter on a run of 3 against an opponent on a shorter one wins 56% of the time (435 of 773 fights).
Pavlovich is 4 years younger. With an age gap of 4 to 5 years, the younger fighter wins 56% of UFC fights (929 of 1,653 fights).
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
The facts, side by side — Sergei Pavlovich vs Alex Pereira.
| UFC 9-3 | UFC record | UFC 10-3 |
| 21-3 | Pro record | 13-4 |
| — | Nickname | Poatan |
| 6' 3" | Height | 6' 4" |
| 84" | Reach | 79" |
| Southpaw | Stance | Orthodox |
| 34 | Age | 39 |
| 257 lbs. | Weight | 251 lbs. |
| Russia | Nationality | Brazil |
| Orlovsky, Rostov Oblast, Russia | Born in | São Bernardo do Campo, São Paulo, Brazil |
| Moscow, Russia | Fights out of | Danbury, Connecticut, United States |
| Eagles MMA | Camp | Teixeira MMA & Fitness |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Sergei Pavlovich12 UFC fights · 285 landed
Alex Pereira13 UFC fights · 697 landed
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Sergei Pavlovich
Alex Pereira
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.50 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Sergei Pavlovich (left) vs Alex Pereira (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
6' 3" southpaw power striker campaigning at Heavyweight. 9 UFC wins — 7 KO/TKO, 2 decision.
6' 4" orthodox power striker campaigning at Light Heavyweight. 10 UFC wins — 8 KO/TKO, 2 decision.