Picks · Oliveira vs Lopes ·
Charles Oliveira vs Diego Lopes prediction
Lightweight · Oliveira vs Lopes · 12 Dec 2026
Both fighters finish: at least two thirds of their UFC wins ended inside the distance. When two finishers meet, 64% of UFC fights end inside the distance (354 of 550 fights). Across every UFC fight it is 53%.
Lopes is 5 years younger. With an age gap of 4 to 5 years, the younger fighter wins 56% of UFC fights (929 of 1,653 fights).
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
The facts, side by side — Charles Oliveira vs Diego Lopes.
| UFC 25-11 (1 draw/NC) | UFC record | UFC 7-3 |
| 37-11 | Pro record | 28-8 |
| Do Bronxs | Nickname | — |
| 5' 10" | Height | 5' 11" |
| 74" | Reach | 72" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 36 | Age | 31 |
| 155 lbs. | Weight | 145 lbs. |
| Brazil | Nationality | Brazil |
| Guarujá, Brazil | Born in | Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil |
| Guarujá, São Paulo, Brazil | Fights out of | Puebla, Mexico |
| — | Camp | Lobo Gym MMA |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Charles Oliveira37 UFC fights · 954 landed
Diego Lopes10 UFC fights · 462 landed
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Charles Oliveira
Diego Lopes
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.50 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Charles Oliveira (left) vs Diego Lopes (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
5' 10" orthodox submission grappler campaigning at Lightweight. 25 UFC wins — 4 KO/TKO, 17 submission, 4 decision.
5' 11" orthodox power striker campaigning at Featherweight. 7 UFC wins — 4 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 2 decision.