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Amir Albazi vs Alessandro Costa prediction

Flyweight · Prochazka vs Stirling · 21 Nov 2026
UFC 5-2 · Pro 17-3
VS
UFC 5-3 · Pro 17-5

Prediction

early read
Alessandro Costa 51%
49%51%
as of 11 Oct 2026, 09:03 UTC

By the numbers

  • Rematches

    A rematch: Albazi beat Costa in their last meeting (December 2022, by knockout). In UFC rematches, the winner of the last meeting wins again 60% of the time (116 of 194 fights).

  • Age

    Costa is 2 years younger. With an age gap of 2 to 3 years, the younger fighter wins 57% of UFC fights (1,252 of 2,209 fights).

  • Win streaks

    Costa comes in on a 3-fight UFC winning run. A fighter on a run of 3 against an opponent on a shorter one wins 56% of the time (435 of 773 fights).

History leans Albazi on 1 of these; our early read still favours Costa.

Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.

Tale of the tape

The facts, side by side — Amir Albazi vs Alessandro Costa.

Red corner AmirAlbazi“The Prince”Xtreme Couture · Born in Baghdad, Iraq · Fights out of Baghdad, Iraq
VSUpcoming
Blue corner AlessandroCosta“Nono”Lobo Gym MMA · Hometown (per Sherdog): Manaus, Amazonas
FlyweightPicks published · graded in public after the card
The story
  • Has dropped 2 straight in the UFC.
  • Comes in on a 3-fight win streak.
  • Has finished 3 of 5 UFC wins.
  • Every one of Costa’s 5 UFC wins came inside the distance.
17-3
Record
17-5
32
Age
−2 yr30
+1″5' 5"
Height
5' 4"
+1″68″
Reach
67″
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
7
UFC bouts
+18
3/560% of wins
Finishes
+40%5/5100% of wins
Xtreme Couture
Gym
Lobo Gym MMA
Baghdad, Iraqfights out of
From
Manaus, Amazonashometown, per Sherdog
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s.
All the vitals, as a table
UFC 5-2UFC recordUFC 5-3
17-3Pro record17-5
The PrinceNicknameNono
5' 5"Height5' 4"
68"Reach67"
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
32Age30
125 lbs.Weight125 lbs.
IraqNationalityBrazil
Baghdad, IraqBorn in—
Baghdad, IraqFights out of—
—Hometown (per Sherdog)Manaus, Amazonas
Xtreme CoutureCampLobo Gym MMA
Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality and camp from the public fighter register. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. The UFC record is counted from the official results themselves.

FightIQ Metrics

Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.

Amir AlbaziAlessandro Costa
24
Striking
67
57
Defence
56
29
Grappling / TD
28
68
Cardio
15
90
Chin
17
54
Fight IQ
37
Our read — derived, not official stats. Ranked within weight class.

Strike zones

Strike zones

Where they go — head to head

Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Amir Albazi7 UFC fights · 251 landed

69.4%
HEAD
61.3%
17.5%
BODY
18.8%
13.1%
LEGS
19.9%

Alessandro Costa8 UFC fights · 277 landed

Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.

Takedowns

Takedowns

The level change — head to head

Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Amir Albazi

1.18takedowns / 15 min
1.18 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
0.70 / 15m
4.72 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
2.69 / 15m
25%
ACCURACY
26%
0.40 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.70 / 15m

Alessandro Costa

0.70takedowns / 15 min

Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.00 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.

Ranked in Flyweight

Stats comparison

Amir Albazi (left) vs Alessandro Costa (right) — career striking & grappling rates.

Strikes landed / min
2.47
vs
3.77
Striking accuracy
33%
vs
46%
Strikes absorbed / min
3.88
vs
3.71
Striking defence
59%
vs
57%
Takedowns / 15 min
1.18
vs
0.7
Takedown accuracy
25%
vs
26%
Takedown defence
62%
vs
87%
Sub attempts / 15 min
0.4
vs
0.7
Career averages from public UFC statistics.

Bios

Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.

Amir AlbaziFightIQ profileAll-rounder

5' 5" orthodox all-rounder campaigning at Flyweight. 5 UFC wins — 1 KO/TKO, 2 submission, 2 decision.

Built from Amir Albazi’s own fight record and striking and grappling figures, recomputed for this build. Full profile →
Alessandro CostaFightIQ profilePower striker

5' 4" orthodox power striker campaigning at Flyweight. 5 UFC wins — 4 KO/TKO, 1 submission.

Built from Alessandro Costa’s own fight record and striking and grappling figures, recomputed for this build. Full profile →

Go deeper

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