Kevin Borjas is 2-4 through six UFC flyweight bouts, and his last five split cleanly by method: both wins came by unanimous decision, both stoppage losses came by knockout in the second round. Rei Tsuruya is 2-1 in three UFC appearances, beaten only on the scorecards, by Joshua Van in March 2025, and coming off a first-round submission of Luis Gurule on May 30 in a bantamweight bout. Borjas has the bigger sample; Tsuruya has the cleaner one. The model has Tsuruya at 83.2%, a LOCK and the highest number on the card.
The read
An 83.2% LOCK is the strongest read the model has for Saturday, and the most likely method is a decision, which puts the confidence on who controls 15 minutes rather than on who lands the biggest shot. Tsuruya's path is the one his record already sketches: bank rounds, and take the finish if it appears the way it did in May. Borjas gets there by turning this into the fight he won against Ronaldo Rodriguez in March 2025 and Andre Lima in June, a full three rounds he can win on the cards, though the same stretch shows him stopped twice inside two rounds. The tell is that the model is weighting Tsuruya's short, clean record more heavily than the twice as many fights on the other side.
What decides it
- Tsuruya's finishing threat against a Borjas file that carries two second-round stoppage losses
- Borjas back about 10 weeks after his June 20 decision win over Andre Lima
- Borjas's path is the full three rounds, the way both of his UFC wins arrived
- Flyweight three-rounder, and the model's most likely method here is a decision
- LOCK at 83.2%, the most confident read on the card