Andre Lima is 4-1 over five UFC fights, a run built on a disqualification win over Igor Severino, a split decision over Mitch Raposo, a unanimous decision over Felipe dos Santos and a third-round submission of Daniel Barez. He lost a unanimous decision to Kevin Borjas in June and returns 10 weeks later. Namsrai Batbayar has no prior UFC fight in our data, so there is no octagon record to read on him at all. The model has Lima at its highest tier.
The read
The highest tier is the strongest read we publish, and this one rests on an information gap as much as on form: five UFC results on one side and none on the other. Lima's path is the one he walked four times before June, staying in the exchanges long enough to bank rounds and taking the submission if it appears, as it did against Barez. Batbayar's path is the one every debutant has, which is that a first octagon appearance can look nothing like the projection, and there is nothing on file to say which way it breaks. The tell is that the model still calls decision the likeliest method, so its strongest read here expects Lima to earn 15 minutes rather than end them.
What decides it
- Five UFC fights of evidence on one side, none at all on the other
- Lima's June loss to Kevin Borjas, on a 10-week turnaround, is the softest part of the read
- Borjas, the man who beat him in June, fights on this same card as the model's heaviest underdog
- Flyweight three-rounder, with decision the most likely method
- It reaches the top tier by the smallest margin on the card: the weakest of the model's four inputs reads 70.2%, and the bar is 70%