Sean Woodson is 7-2-1 in the UFC and won four in a row, including a first-round KO of Fernando Padilla, before Dan Ige stopped him in the third in April 2025. That is his last fight in our data, a layoff of more than a year. Jack Jenkins is 4-2 and has alternated results across his last five, most recently a unanimous decision over Ramon Taveras last September. The model leans Woodson, and not by much.
The read
The lean rests on the better record and the longer win run rather than on anything recent. Woodson's path is the three-round decision that most of his UFC work is made of, taking rounds off a fighter whose own results keep flipping. Jenkins' path is the time Woodson has spent away, plus the fact that Woodson's most recent appearance ended in a knockout loss. The tell is that the model is barely discounting the inactivity, reading a 10-fight UFC sample against Jenkins' six.
What decides it
- Woodson's decision-heavy record against a Jenkins run that has alternated wins and losses
- Woodson has not fought since April 2025 in our data, while Jenkins fought in September
- Jenkins' path is the layoff and the knockout that ended Woodson's four-fight run
- Featherweight three-rounder, decision the likeliest outcome
- A modest lean, closer to even than the record gap looks