Luke Riley is 2-0 in the UFC, a second-round knockout of Bogdan Grad in November and a unanimous decision against Michael Aswell Jr. in March. Kai Kamaka III is 2-2-1 across five UFC fights, with wins over Tony Kelley in 2020 and, by split decision on April 4 at lightweight, Dakota Hope, a draw with Danny Chavez in July 2021, and losses to Jonathan Pearce and TJ Brown. The model reads Riley at 61.7%.
The read
Experience is doing a share of the work here, though the numbers are close. Riley's path is the straightforward one, a decision won by staying busy against a man who has been around the UFC since 2020. Kamaka's path is that he is coming off a win only three months old and has five UFC fights to Riley's two. The model expects the scorecards, so it is reading this as a pace question rather than a power one.
What decides it
- Riley's unbeaten UFC start against Kamaka's 2-2-1 octagon record
- Kamaka's last fight was a split-decision win over Dakota Hope in April, at lightweight
- Kamaka's path is that five UFC fights outweigh Riley's two
- Riley's recent work is at featherweight, three rounds, and the model expects the judges
- A clear enough lean toward Riley without being a strong one