Terrance McKinney is 8-5 in the UFC across 13 fights, and not one of his last five got out of the first round: three wins inside the distance, two losses the same way. Bobby Green, who fights in the UFC as King Green, is 16-12 with a draw and a no contest across 30 UFC fights and comes in on a three-fight win streak, a split decision over Lance Gibson Jr., a second-round KO of Daniel Zellhuber and a first-round submission of Jeremy Stephens in May. The model settles on McKinney at 50.1%, the flattest number in this group.
The read
At 50.1% the model is admitting it cannot separate these two. McKinney's path is the one his record keeps drawing, a first-round finish before either man has settled. Green's path is surviving the opening burst, which he has not always done, since five of his 12 UFC losses ended in round one, and winning the longer fight with the experience of 30 UFC bouts. The likeliest method is a knockout, and that is the model leaning on McKinney's finishing pattern rather than on any comparison between them.
What decides it
- McKinney's last five all ended in round one, win or lose
- Green is 30 UFC fights deep and on a three-fight win streak
- Green's path is surviving the first five minutes and taking it into unfamiliar territory for McKinney
- Lightweight three-rounder, though the record says the opening round decides it
- Dead-even read, the model's flattest here