Gable Steveson makes his UFC debut. Elisha Ellison has one UFC fight, a first-round knockout loss to Brando Pericic at heavyweight in September 2025, which leaves him 0-1. The model still lands on Steveson at 63.6%, a number built on almost nothing from inside the UFC.
The read
Take this one more sceptically than the percentage suggests, because there is a single UFC fight between the pair and it ended inside a round against Ellison. Steveson's path, as the model reads it, is a knockout, the same way Ellison's only octagon night finished. Ellison's path is that one bad night says little, and that a fighter with no UFC bout at all is the greater unknown of the two. The model is working here without much evidence, so the honest word is lean rather than read.
What decides it
- Steveson makes his UFC debut, and Ellison has one round of UFC film
- Ellison's only octagon appearance ended by knockout in the first
- Ellison's path is that a single early loss is a thin sample to judge him on
- Scheduled for three rounds, and the model expects it to end well short of them
- A number resting on the thinnest UFC evidence