Farid Basharat is 6-0 in the UFC, a unanimous decision over Da'Mon Blackshear in his debut, a first-round submission of Kleydson Rodrigues in his second fight and the four since on the scorecards, the most recent a split decision over Jean Matsumoto in February. John Garza makes his UFC debut. The model favors Basharat, with the honest caveat that half this matchup is unknown to it.
The read
An unbeaten six-fight run against a fighter making his UFC debut is a read the model can only half-support. Basharat's path is the one he has walked four straight times, taking rounds and closing them out on the cards. Garza's path is the debut itself, since nothing in the UFC says what he cannot do. The tell is how modest the lean stays for a fighter who has not lost in the UFC.
What decides it
- Basharat's decision-heavy run against an opponent making his UFC debut
- Basharat's last outing was a split decision, the narrowest of his six
- Garza's path is the unknown, with no UFC bout to weigh against him
- Bantamweight, three rounds, decision the likeliest route
- A moderate lean, held down by a debut on one side