Cody Garbrandt is 10-7 across 17 UFC fights and has won three of his last five, most recently a unanimous decision against Xiao Long in March. Adrian Yanez is 6-3 across 10, has one win in his last five and has been stopped twice in that run, with his March meeting with Ricky Simon going into the books without a winner. The model takes Yanez at 54.5%, which puts it against the recent results column.
The read
Picking the man with the thinner recent ledger usually means the model is reading something other than wins and losses. Yanez's path is the one it expects, a decision built out of long exchanges. Garbrandt's path is the finish his record still shows, the first-round stoppage of Brian Kelleher being the last clean example of it. This sits close to even and the form guide argues the other way, so it is a read to hold loosely.
What decides it
- Garbrandt's knockout record against a Yanez run that includes two stoppage losses
- Garbrandt holds the better recent form and the model has picked against it
- Garbrandt's path is the early finish, the way the Kelleher fight ended
- Both men's recent work is at bantamweight, three rounds, decision the likeliest end
- Close read with the results column pointing the other way