What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
5 rounds of tape
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
The judges’ totals, the media’s cards beside them, and how these judges usually score.
Decision - Unanimous
| Judge | Total |
|---|---|
| Sal D'amato2.1 avg spread · 46% wide | 46–49 |
| Derek Cleary2.0 avg spread · 42% wide | 47–48 |
| Ron McCarthy2.0 avg spread · 41% wide | 45–50 |
There is no per-round card for this bout in our decisions source, so the judges’ totals are all we can show. This one is inside the window our source covers — it is a gap in the record, not a scrape we are waiting on, and nothing here is estimated to fill it.
Official cards come from the UFCStats fight record and MMA Decisions. Media cards and the fan vote are MMA Decisions’ own collection and are not official. Judge tendency figures are that judge’s whole recorded history, not this bout — they are context for how a card was scored, never a claim that it was scored wrongly.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Alexandre Pantoja
Joshua Van
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.00 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
From the open the market drifted toward our pick: Joshua Van's implied chance moved up from 52% to 58% (+6.0pp).
Our published call had Joshua Van at 69.2%. At the last price we captured before the fight, the de-vigged market had the same fighter at 58.5% — our number sat 10.7pp above the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
| Series | Open | Low | High | Last capture | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Pantoja — sportsbook consensus | 48.2% | 40.9% | 48.2% | 41.1% | −7.1pp |
| Joshua Van — sportsbook consensus | 51.8% | 51.8% | 59.1% | 58.9% | +7.1pp |
| Alexandre Pantoja — Polymarket | 47.5% | 41.5% | 49.5% | 41.5% | −6.0pp |
| Joshua Van — Polymarket | 52.5% | 50.5% | 58.5% | 58.5% | +6.0pp |