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Talita Alencar vs Piera Rodriguez prediction

Women's Strawweight · Moicano vs Nolan · 31 Oct 2026
UFC 4-1 · Pro 8-1-1
VS
UFC 5-2 · Pro 12-2

Prediction

early read
Piera Rodriguez 59%
41%59%
as of 11 Oct 2026, 09:03 UTC

By the numbers

  • Finishers

    Both fighters go the distance: at least two thirds of their UFC wins came on the scorecards. When two decision winners meet, 31% of UFC fights end inside the distance (73 of 238 fights). Across every UFC fight it is 53%.

  • Age

    Rodriguez is 2 years younger. With an age gap of 2 to 3 years, the younger fighter wins 57% of UFC fights (1,252 of 2,209 fights).

Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.

Tale of the tape

The facts, side by side — Talita Alencar vs Piera Rodriguez.

Red corner TalitaAlencar“Problem Child”Born in Carutapera, Brazil
VSUpcoming
Blue corner PieraRodriguez“La Fiera”Black House MMA · Hometown (per Sherdog): Maracaibo, Zulia
Women's StrawweightPicks published · graded in public after the card
The story
  • Comes in on a 3-fight win streak.
  • Comes in on a 3-fight win streak.
  • Is 10 points more accurate striking than Alencar.
8-1-1
Record
12-2
35
Age
−2 yr33
5' 1"
Height
+2″5' 3"
58″
Reach
+5″63″
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5
UFC bouts
+27
+25%1/425% of wins
Finishes
0/50% of wins
Carutapera, Brazilborn in
From
Maracaibo, Zuliahometown, per Sherdog
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s.
All the vitals, as a table
UFC 4-1UFC recordUFC 5-2
8-1-1Pro record12-2
Problem ChildNicknameLa Fiera
5' 1"Height5' 3"
58"Reach63"
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
35Age33
115 lbs.Weight115 lbs.
BrazilNationalityVenezuela
Carutapera, BrazilBorn in—
—Hometown (per Sherdog)Maracaibo, Zulia
—CampBlack House MMA
Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality and camp from the public fighter register. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. The UFC record is counted from the official results themselves.

FightIQ Metrics

Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.

Talita AlencarPiera Rodriguez
32
Striking
60
44
Defence
60
56
Grappling / TD
84
73
Cardio
57
47
Chin
77
50
Fight IQ
68
Our read — derived, not official stats. Ranked within weight class.

Strike zones

Strike zones

Where they go — head to head

Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Talita Alencar5 UFC fights · 242 landed

61.2%
HEAD
53.0%
28.9%
BODY
36.5%
9.9%
LEGS
10.5%

Piera Rodriguez7 UFC fights · 392 landed

Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.

Takedowns

Takedowns

The level change — head to head

Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Talita Alencar

3.01takedowns / 15 min
3.01 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
4.04 / 15m
10.38 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
8.08 / 15m
29%
ACCURACY
50%
0.50 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.00 / 15m

Piera Rodriguez

4.04takedowns / 15 min

Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (4.19 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.

Ranked in Women's Strawweight

Stats comparison

Talita Alencar (left) vs Piera Rodriguez (right) — career striking & grappling rates.

Strikes landed / min
3.09
vs
4.04
Striking accuracy
36%
vs
46%
Strikes absorbed / min
3.67
vs
3.13
Striking defence
51%
vs
53%
Takedowns / 15 min
3.01
vs
4.04
Takedown accuracy
29%
vs
50%
Takedown defence
66%
vs
81%
Sub attempts / 15 min
0.5
vs
0
Career averages from public UFC statistics.

Bios

Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.

Talita AlencarFightIQ profileGrappling-led all-rounder

5' 1" orthodox grappling-led all-rounder campaigning at Women's Strawweight. 4 UFC wins — 1 submission, 3 decision.

Built from Talita Alencar’s own fight record and striking and grappling figures, recomputed for this build. Full profile →
Piera RodriguezFightIQ profileWrestle-grinder

5' 3" orthodox wrestle-grinder campaigning at Women's Strawweight. 5 UFC wins — 5 decision.

Built from Piera Rodriguez’s own fight record and striking and grappling figures, recomputed for this build. Full profile →

Go deeper

Elsewhere on the card

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