Round 1
21 of 48
Sig.
strikes
strikes
19 of 46
0 of 8
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 1
0:12
Control
0:00
0
Sub
attempts
attempts
0
Distance 17Clinch 4Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 16Clinch 3Ground 0
VSSettled
Blue corner
RinyaNakamura“Hybred”American Top Team · Born in Saitama, Japan · Fights out of Saitama, Japan
The story going in
- Comes in on a 3-fight win streak.
- Has finished 2 of 4 UFC wins.
- Has finished 2 of 3 UFC wins.
- Carries 39 points more takedown defence than Hiestand.
10-2
Record
10-2
−4 yr27
Age
31
+1″5' 8"
Height
5' 7"
+3″71″
Reach
68″
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
4
UFC bouts
+15
+17%2/367% of wins
Finishes
2/450% of wins
Sikjitsu
Gym
American Top Team
Spokane, Washingtonhometown, per Sherdog
From
Saitama, Japanfights out of
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.
The call vs the fight
What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Our call
Rinya Nakamura
81.1% confidentHIGH
The fight
Brady Hiestand
LOSS✗
Graded against the official UFC result, from
the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict
is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads
as one. See the full public record →
By the numbers
Age
Hiestand is 4 years younger. With an age gap of 4 to 5 years, the younger fighter wins 56% of UFC fights (925 of 1,647 fights).
Win streaks
Hiestand comes in on a 3-fight UFC winning run. A fighter on a run of 3 against an opponent on a shorter one wins 56% of the time (433 of 770 fights).
History leans Hiestand on 2 of these; our model picked Nakamura.
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
2 rounds of tape
Round 22 sub attemptsEnded 4:07
5 of 7
Sig.
strikes
strikes
10 of 19
0 of 1
Take-
downs
downs
1 of 5
1:39
Control
1:32
2
Sub
attempts
attempts
0
Distance 4Clinch 1Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 2Clinch 8Ground 0
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
How it ended
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Won inside the distance
Brady Hiestand
Round
2
Clock
4:07
Method
SUB
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Herb Dean.
Takedowns
Takedowns
The level change — head to head
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Brady Hiestand
4.13 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
2.44 / 15m
11.16 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
4.21 / 15m
37%
ACCURACY
58%
1.40 / 15m
SUB ATT
1.20 / 15m
61%
TD DEFENCE
100%
Rinya Nakamura
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.50 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Ranked in Bantamweight
The market story
What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Brady HiestandRinya NakamuraPolymarketSportsbook consensus (vig removed)
From the open the market drifted toward our pick: Rinya Nakamura's implied chance moved up from 74% to 78% (+4.0pp).
Our published call had Rinya Nakamura at 81.1%. At the last price we captured before the fight, the de-vigged market had the same fighter at 77.5% — our number sat 3.6pp above the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
Show the numbers
| Series | Open | Low | High | Last capture | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Hiestand — sportsbook consensus | 26.2% | 23.2% | 27.4% | 23.2% | −3.0pp |
| Rinya Nakamura — sportsbook consensus | 73.8% | 72.6% | 76.8% | 76.8% | +3.0pp |
| Brady Hiestand — Polymarket | 26.5% | 22.5% | 32.5% | 22.5% | −4.0pp |
| Rinya Nakamura — Polymarket | 73.5% | 67.5% | 77.5% | 77.5% | +4.0pp |
Price history from Polymarket (moneyline, both corners) and BestFightOdds (sportsbook consensus, vig removed). 1,039 snapshots on file · window Sep 19 19:11–Sep 26 23:51Z · last capture Sep 26, 23:51Z · hourly-downsampled for the chart · read at build time from the price archive, not a live feed.