FightIQ's model flagged six of the 12 bouts it read for UFC Sacramento on Saturday, and the main event is one of them.
The card runs at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento. Two of the six flagged picks came back at LOCK, our top confidence tier, and four came back at HIGH. Those are the only two tiers we call flagged.
Reinier de Ridder at 79.6% over Roman Dolidze is the strongest read on the card. The model projects a decision.
Shanelle Dyer at 78.7% over Elise Reed is the second LOCK, also by decision.
The main event sits below the two LOCKs. The model gives Anthony Hernandez 72.8% over Gregory Rodrigues and projects a decision there as well.
The remaining three HIGH picks are Marcio Barbosa at 67.9% over Ryan Kuse by KO/TKO, Carli Judice at 65.6% over Jeisla Chaves by decision and Lerryan Douglas at 64.3% over Jamall Emmers by decision.
Five of the six flagged picks project a decision. Barbosa is the only one the model expects to end early. The model's conviction tonight is concentrated in fights it expects to go the distance.
Six of the bouts we modelled came back under the flag line, and we publish those numbers without flagging them.
Mason Jones reads 63.3% over MarQuel Mederos by decision, the highest of them. Vitor Petrino reads 59.4% over Serghei Spivac by KO/TKO. Kennedy Nzechukwu reads 52.6% over Shamil Gaziev by KO/TKO. Gauge Young reads 52.0% over Stan Dorsainvil by decision, Chris Padilla 52.1% over Nasrat Haqparast by decision and Jackson McVey 52.3% over Wes Schultz by KO/TKO.
Every fight above carries real betting-market odds, which the model reads as one of its inputs. All 12 were checked before publication.
One fight on tonight's card is missing from the set. Anthony Wint vs. Terrance Chatman has no model read, and we are not publishing a number for it.
Our source listings and our modelled set also still disagree on how many bouts the card holds, so we are not asserting a total. Everything above describes the 12 bouts we modelled.
Last Saturday at UFC 330 we published four LOCK picks. Two of the four won, and both losses came by submission.
Tonight we publish two LOCKs and four HIGH picks. Both are card-level counts, and we are not connecting them to each other. Nothing about tonight's numbers was set in response to last week's card. What the model flags moves around from week to week.
None of these fights have happened. The numbers are the model's pre-fight reads and nothing here is a recommendation to bet.
We will grade the six flagged picks once the card is finished, the same way we graded the four from last Saturday.