Ian Machado Garry is 10-1 across 11 UFC appearances, and all five of his most recent fights went to the judges, including wins over Michael Page, Carlos Prates and Belal Muhammad and a five-round loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov. Islam Makhachev is 17-1 across 18 UFC fights and has won five in a row, four of those in lightweight title bouts and the last a five-round decision over Jack Della Maddalena in a welterweight title bout. The model has Makhachev HIGH; the read is the depth of that recent run.
The read
HIGH tier over a fighter with one career UFC loss means the model sees separation rather than a close call. Makhachev's path is the one his last five wins already describe, controlling where the fight happens long enough for the scorecards or a submission to finish it. Garry's path is length and output over 25 minutes, the same script that carried him past Prates and Muhammad. Most likely method is decision, and the tell is that Makhachev's three finishes in that run landed twice in the first round and once in the fifth, so the danger window never really shuts.
What decides it
- Makhachev's five-fight run, four of them in title bouts
- Garry's last five all reached the judges
- Garry's path is distance management across 25 minutes
- Five-round main event, decision the likeliest method
- HIGH tier, one of six flagged picks on this card