Dustin Stoltzfus is 3-7 across 10 UFC fights and has lost his last two, decisions to Nursulton Ruziboev and Kelvin Gastelum. Mansur Abdul-Malik is 3-1-1 across five UFC appearances, with three wins inside the distance, a majority draw with Cody Brundage and a third-round stoppage loss to Yousri Belgaroui in his most recent outing. The model has Abdul-Malik LOCK at 80.4%, the highest number on the card.
The read
This card carries four LOCK picks, which sits at the very top of what the model ever issues, and this bout is the largest of them. Abdul-Malik's path is the one his record already runs on, getting to a finish early, with a knockout of Dusko Todorovic in the first round and a submission of Antonio Trocoli in the first round to point at. Stoltzfus has the counter-route, having submitted Punahele Soriano in the second and having gone the distance twice in a row against ranked opposition, so the longer this stays live the more his experience matters. Most likely method is knockout or technical knockout, and the tell is that Abdul-Malik's own loss came in the third round, which is the exact stretch Stoltzfus needs to reach.
What decides it
- Abdul-Malik's finishing rate over five UFC appearances
- Stoltzfus 3-7 in the UFC and on a two-fight skid
- Stoltzfus' path is surviving into deep water
- Middleweight three-rounder, stoppage the likeliest method
- LOCK tier, the biggest number on the card