Jose Montanha makes his UFC debut. Louie Sutherland is 1-2, submitted by Valter Walker inside a round and knocked out by Brando Pericic inside a round, then a unanimous decision winner over Tai Tuivasa in May. The model leans Montanha, with a knockout the likeliest method.
The read
A pick on a debutant is thinner than the number looks, and the model is working largely from Sutherland's UFC pattern. Montanha's path is early, because both of Sutherland's UFC losses ended in the first round. Sutherland's path is what he found against Tuivasa, absorbing the opening exchanges and dragging the fight into the later rounds, where he won his one decision. The first-round window decides this in either direction.
What decides it
- Montanha makes his UFC debut
- Both Sutherland UFC losses ended in round one
- Sutherland's win over Tuivasa went the full three
- First round is the decisive window for both paths
- Three rounds, knockout the model's top method