Darren Elkins brings 30 UFC fights and a 19-11 record, including a submission of TJ Brown and a decision over Daniel Pineda, with a first-round knockout loss to Julian Erosa in April 2025 as the most recent entry. Yadier Del Valle is 2-1, having submitted Connor Matthews and Isaac Dulgarian in the first round before dropping a unanimous decision to Jordan Leavitt. The model takes Del Valle, reading direction over experience.
The read
The gap in octagon time is enormous and the model is looking past it at where each career is heading. Del Valle's path is the one that ended his first two UFC fights, a submission inside the opening five minutes. Elkins' path is depth, taking Del Valle into territory where the shorter record has already cracked once, against Leavitt. The tell is that the model expects a decision from a fighter whose only UFC wins came by first-round submission.
What decides it
- Elkins carries 30 UFC fights and a 19-11 record
- Del Valle's two octagon wins both first-round submissions
- Del Valle's only loss came when it went the distance
- Elkins' path is taking it deep into the third
- Decision the model's likeliest method