Jan Blachowicz is 12-8-2 over 22 UFC fights, and the last win on his record came against Aleksandar Rakic in May 2022. Four fights have followed, including a light heavyweight title bout with Magomed Ankalaev that produced no result, a split-decision loss to Alex Pereira and a decision loss to Carlos Ulberg, and none of them are wins. Navajo Stirling is 5-0 in the UFC with three unanimous decisions and second-round stoppages of Bruno Lopes and Ion Cutelaba in his last two. The model has Stirling HIGH at 74.1%.
The read
HIGH here is a trajectory read rather than a stylistic one: five wins and no losses on one side, four fights without a win on the other. Stirling's path is the one he has already walked three times, taking rounds and taking the cards, which is the method the model lands on. Blachowicz's path runs through his 22 fights of octagon experience and the fact that two of those four winless results were close enough to be scored a split and a majority. The tell is that Stirling has stopped his last two in round two while the model still expects this one to reach the judges.
What decides it
- Stirling 5-0 in the UFC, Blachowicz without a win since May 2022
- Blachowicz's 22 fights of experience against Stirling's five
- Two of Blachowicz's winless results were split or majority calls
- Stirling's last two ended in round two despite a decision read
- HIGH tier, one of the clearer trajectory gaps on the card