Gilbert Urbina is 1-3 in the UFC, with all four of his fights ending inside the distance and the most recent a first-round KO loss to Uros Medic in August 2025. Vlasto Cepo makes his UFC debut. The model still favors Cepo at 66.9% and expects a KO/TKO.
The read
Picking a debutant over a fighter with four appearances is a statement about what those four appearances showed. Urbina's path is the one that produced his only UFC win, a second-round stoppage of Orion Cosce in May 2023, and it means being the man who lands first. Cepo's path is untested at this level, and that is the caveat to hold next to 66.9%. Medic, who removed Urbina inside a round last August, headlines this same card.
What decides it
- Urbina 1-3, and every one of his four fights ended inside the distance
- Cepo makes his UFC debut
- Urbina's only UFC win came by second-round stoppage
- Number rests on Urbina's results, not on anything Cepo has shown in the UFC
- KO/TKO expected, middleweight three-rounder