Bogdan Grad is 1-2 in the UFC, a second-round TKO of Lucas Alexander in February 2025 followed by a decision loss to Muhammad Naimov and a second-round stoppage loss to Luke Riley. Dennis Buzukja is 1-4 in the UFC. His win was a third-round TKO of Connor Matthews in March 2024, and he is coming off a first-round KO loss to Marcio Barbosa in April.
The read
58.3% is a modest number between two fighters with thin UFC records, three fights for Grad and five for Buzukja. Grad's path is the one that produced the Alexander finish, getting to a stoppage before the rounds start to accumulate against him. Buzukja's path is a recovery from the Barbosa knockout, and he has won once in five UFC fights. Both of Grad's losses came from opponents who got past the first round, and the model still expects this to reach the judges.
What decides it
- Grad 1-2 across three UFC fights
- Buzukja 1-4 across five UFC fights, his latest a first-round KO loss in April
- Grad's win came by second-round TKO
- Both Grad losses came after the first round
- 58.3% is a modest lean between two short UFC records