Ramazan Temirov is 2-0 in the UFC with a first-round KO/TKO of CJ Vergara and a unanimous decision over Charles Johnson, a sample of two fights and nothing more. Steve Erceg is 5-3 through eight, a run that includes a five-round title-bout loss to Alexandre Pantoja, a first-round KO/TKO loss to Kai Kara-France and a five-round decision loss to Brandon Moreno, followed by decision wins over Ode Osbourne and Tim Elliott. The model splits it at 51.0% for Erceg, the tightest read on the card.
The read
There is no separation here and the model is honest about it. Erceg's path is the one he has used twice since the losing run, taking rounds against a smaller body of work and making the fight long. Temirov's path is the Vergara fight, catching an opponent who has been stopped inside a round before and ending it there. The interesting part is that Erceg has been to five rounds twice and Temirov has never been past three, so the deciding factor may be what the second half of round three looks like.
What decides it
- Erceg's championship-round mileage against Temirov's two-fight sample
- Erceg is two wins into rebuilding after three straight losses
- Temirov's path is landing something heavy early, the way he ended the Vergara fight
- Flyweight three-rounder, likeliest to be decided on the scorecards
- The tightest read on the card, and the model says so