Brendson Ribeiro is 2-5 through seven UFC fights and has lost his last three, all in the first round, by KO/TKO to Azamat Murzakanov, by KO/TKO to Oumar Sy and by submission to Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev in April. Magomed Tuchalov makes his UFC debut. The model takes Tuchalov at 73.6%, the second-largest number on the card, and expects a KO/TKO.
The read
The size of this read comes largely from what Ribeiro has been doing rather than anything Tuchalov has shown in the UFC, and that is the caveat to carry into it. Tuchalov's path is the one the model expects, applying pressure to an opponent who has lost three straight in the opening round. Ribeiro's path is getting through the first five minutes for the first time since March 2025, and his two UFC wins show he can compete once a fight goes long. A debutant is carrying the second-largest number on the card, and the model got there by reading the man across from him.
What decides it
- Ribeiro's three straight first-round losses against a debutant
- Tuchalov's number rests on Ribeiro's recent results rather than on any UFC bout of his own
- Ribeiro's path is surviving round one and taking it into the grappling exchanges where he has won before
- Light heavyweight three-rounder, KO/TKO the expected method
- A large number built on thin evidence for the pick, and it deserves scepticism