Axel Sola is 1-1 in the UFC, a third-round KO/TKO of Rhys McKee followed by a unanimous decision loss to Mason Jones in March. Ismael Bonfim is 2-3 through five and has lost his last two inside the distance, a doctor's stoppage against Nazim Sadykhov in round one and a KO/TKO to Chris Padilla in round two. The model reads Sola at 63.3% and expects the scorecards.
The read
Trajectory is doing most of the work here. Sola's path is the Mason Jones fight with a better outcome, staying busy for 15 minutes against an opponent who has not seen the judges since May 2024. Bonfim's path is the McKinney fight, where he found the finish in the second round and never had to prove he could be durable. The interesting part is that the model expects a decision from two fighters, three of whose last four outings between them ended early.
What decides it
- Sola's recent activity against Bonfim's two straight stoppage losses
- Bonfim has not been past the second round in his last two outings
- Bonfim's path is the early finish, the way he took out Terrance McKinney
- Lightweight three-rounder with the decision as the expected method
- A clear lean, though not among the model's firmest on the card